Bullish above (conditional): 116,150 (after first touching 115,590)
Bearish below: 115,355
Primary Bias: Conditional long setup; cautious on shorts
Partial Targets (bulls): 116,400 · 116,700 (POC) · 116,995 · 119,470 · 121,450
Partial Targets (bears): 115,120 · 114,070 · 113,770 · 113,555 · 112,910 · 111,100
Bitcoin Market Context Today
At the time of this analysis, Bitcoin futures (BTC) are trading at 116,995. Price came within a hair of Friday’s high at 117,320, printing today’s peak at 117,240. This double-test of resistance signals that a pullback could be on the table before momentum resumes.
This backdrop leads tradeCompass to a conditional long scenario: the bullish case only activates if price first tests 115,590 (just above today’s Value Area Low) and then climbs back through 116,150, which coincides with Friday’s VWAP. That confirmation would mark bulls back in control.
Beyond the intraday setup, the broader conversation around Bitcoin continues to draw traditional finance deeper into crypto. As noted in the Wall Street Journal: “Buffett Devotee Is Plowing Billions Into Crypto”, Capital Group’s Mark Casey has spearheaded a $6 billion push into bitcoin-related firms, calling the asset a superior store of value to gold. His stance underscores how institutional flows and long-term conviction remain key drivers behind Bitcoin’s resilience, even as traders navigate the short-term thresholds mapped out in today’s tradeCompass.
Bullish Trade Plan for Bitcoin Futures
If conditions are met (touch VAL then reclaim 116,150):
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First checkpoint at 116,400, where traders can start locking partial profits.
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Follow-through toward 116,700, aligning with today’s Point of Control.
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Next milestone at 116,995, the current session level and top of the recent range.
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Extended swing target at 119,470, just below the August 15 Value Area High.
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Final stretch target for runners: 121,450, the August 14 Value Area High.
Reminder: After the 2nd profit target (TP2) is reached, move the stop to entry (breakeven) to protect gains and manage the runner.
Bearish Trade Plan for Bitcoin Futures
Bears take control only if price breaks 115,355:
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First reaction level at 115,120 (just above the September 12 VAL). Given the sensitivity, stops should be tightened quickly. If price rebounds to 115,750 before TP2, consider exiting.
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Further downside points: 114,070 (Sept 10 POC) and 113,770 (Sept 10 VWAP).
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Deeper magnets: 113,555 (Aug 28 POC) and 112,910 (early September liquidity pool).
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Ambitious bearish target: 111,100, a major liquidity pocket spanning Sept 2–9.
tradeCompass Philosophy
Each tradeCompass session allows only one long and one short attempt. If a short fails, the next valid activation would be on the long side, and vice versa. This avoids overtrading and keeps discipline sharp.
Educational Note: Profit-Taking Logic
Taking profits at logical levels like VWAP, POC, and prior value area boundaries is not just about booking gains — it’s about reducing exposure as price tests known liquidity magnets. By scaling out step by step, traders protect capital while leaving room for extended moves when they happen.
Risk Management Reminder
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Place stops close to your activation threshold with a small buffer, never beyond the opposite threshold.
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After partial profits, move stops to protect gains.
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Trade at your own risk: futures and crypto markets are highly volatile, and this analysis is for decision support only — not financial advice. Visit investingLive.com (formerly ForexLive.com) for additional views.
