Upon analysing the long-term BTC/USD chart on 16 May, we constructed a “roadmap” for Bitcoin’s price, which appeared as an expanding fan and consisted of a median with support levels below it and resistance levels above it.
Analysing the BTC/USD chart last time on 28 June, we pointed out that:
→ the price broke down through Support 1 following a series of weak bullish rebounds;
→ the price found support at the Support 2 line, forming a strong rebound from it on 24 June;
→ according to Marcus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, the BTC/USD rate could decline to $50,000.
How has the market situation changed over the week?
As shown by the BTC/USD chart today:
→ The price of Bitcoin has fallen below the psychological level of $60k;
→ It has also fallen below the 24 June low, marking the lowest point since 1 May.
Currently, the price is in close proximity to the 1 May low, creating a threat of a more significant decline to the price levels seen at the end of February 2024, when Bitcoin’s price rapidly increased due to the influx of investors into ETF funds.
How realistic is this threat? Considering that the initiative is on the side of the bears, the scenario of further price decline is quite likely.
As today’s technical analysis of the BTC/USD chart with updated data shows:
→ the price continues to decline within the red channel, staying in its lower half (a bearish sign);
→ the price has fallen below the Support 2 line, which may now act as resistance.
According to Coinglass, over the past 12 hours, more than $160 million worth of long positions have been liquidated on major cryptocurrency exchanges. Panic (and liquidation of longs) could intensify if the BTC/USD price falls below the May lows.
Support levels for Bitcoin’s price could include:
→ the lower boundary of the red channel;
→ the psychological level of $55k;
→ the Support 3 line, which is part of the previously constructed “roadmap”.
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