Analysing the long-term BTC/USD chart from 16th May, we constructed a “roadmap” for Bitcoin’s price, resembling an expanding fan consisting of a median and support levels below it, and resistance levels above it.
Reviewing the BTC/USD chart last time (9 thJuly), we noted:
→ Support provided by Support Line 3, reinforced by the psychological level of $55,000;
→ Potential upward movement following consolidation within a narrowing triangle.
How has the market situation changed since last week?
According to today’s BTC/USD chart:
→ Bitcoin price has broken upwards from the consolidation triangle (shown in orange);
→ Over the last 3 days, the price has increased by almost 8%;
→ BTC/USD exchange rate is again above the psychological mark of $60k.
Among the bullish drivers identified:
→ The weakening US Dollar amid slowing inflation and high expectations of a Fed rate cut as early as September;
→ Inflows of investments related to Bitcoin ETFs reaching $300 million per day (as mentioned in our previous post);
→ Price growth observed following news on 13th July about an attempt on Trump during a rally in Pennsylvania. It’s possible Bitcoin is seen as a safe haven amidst political turbulence.
By the way, while a Republican candidate previously criticised Bitcoin as “fraud,” on 14th June, Trump stated he would end the “war on cryptocurrencies” if elected president, a stance confirmed by organisers of the Bitcoin conference in Nashville (scheduled for 25-27 July) who announced Trump’s agreement to speak there.
How will events unfold further?
Technical analysis of the BTC/USD chart shows:
→ The price is near Support 2. Despite its name (given back in May), this line, after a bearish breakthrough in early July, may now serve as resistance;
→ Additional resistance at the level of 63,600 could also serve as a test of bullish confidence.
Thus, encountering these two resistances after a 8% rise over 3 days, a correction phase in Bitcoin’s price chart development may seem like a plausible scenario.
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