Breaks $71k ahead of US NFP :: InvestMacro

• Roughly 4% away from all-time high

• Over past year NFP triggered moves of ↑ 2.5% & ↓ 1%
  

• Key level of interest – $72,000
  

Are Bitcoin bulls gearing up for another charge higher?

Well, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has jumped almost 5% this week, trading around $71,000 as of writing.

Bitcoin along with other cryptocurrencies seem to be supported by the prospect of lower US interest rates in 2024. But another major factor is the monster inflows into exchange-traded funds holding the tokens.

According to data from Coinglass among other sources, Bitcoin ETFs saw a whopping $886.6 million inflows on Tuesday!

Source: Coinglass 

This was the best day of inflows since mid-March and the second-largest amount since spot ETFs launched this year. These bullish forces may keep the “OG” crypto buoyed ahead of Friday’s US jobs data.

As covered in our trade of the week, the incoming NFP report is likely to influence bets around when the Fed cuts rates in 2024.

Traders are currently pricing in a 75% probability of a 25-basis point Fed cut in November with a move fully priced in by December.

Any changes to these expectations may influence cryptocurrencies which have shown sensitivity to interest rates.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the US jobs report has triggered upside moves of as much as 2.5% or declines of 1% in a 6-hour window post-release.

 

What does this mean?

Bitcoin is trading roughly 4% away from its all-time high at $73850.

So essentially, a disappointing jobs report that fuels rate cut bets could push prices closer to all-time highs.

Just to be clear, past price movements do not guarantee future results but can be used to highlight how Bitcoin has reacted to the US jobs report.

It’s not only Bitcoin that may experience big moves on Friday…

• AVALANCH: ↑ 4.0 % or ↓ 2.0%

• CARDANO: ↑ 3.4% or ↓ 1.6%

• SOLANA: ↑ 3.2 % or ↓ 2.7%

• CHAINLINK: ↑ 3.0 % or ↓ 1.2%

• DOGECOIN: ↑ 2.8 % or ↓ 1.1%

• LITECOIN: ↑ 2.2 % or ↓ 1.0%

• BITCOINC: ↑ 2.0 % or ↓ 1.7%

• ETHEREUM: ↑ 2.0% or ↓ 1.3%

• POLYGON: ↑ 1.7% or ↓ 1.5%

• RIPPLE: ↑ 1.7% or ↓ 1.1%

All 10 cryptos listed above are offered by FXTM as Crypto CFD’s.

Technical outlook…

Bitcoin remains trapped within a range on the weekly charts with bulls approaching the $72,000 resistance.

Prices have turned bullish on the daily charts after the breakout above $70,000. The upside momentum may take the crypto towards the $72,000 resistance level in the short term.

• A solid breakout above $72,000 could open a path toward the all-time high at $73850.

• Should prices fall back below $70,000, bears may target $67,000.