Brent Oil, Silver and 5-Year Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 10th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

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Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Brent speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise of 40 points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 13,216 net contracts this week with a rise of 2,936 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

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Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in tied with Brent at the top of the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is also at a 100 percent or maximum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain of 21 points this week. The speculator position registered 66,650 net contracts this week with a weekly boost of 5,880 contracts in speculator bets.

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Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level resides at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 18 points this week. The overall speculator position was -203,747 net contracts this week with a jump of 24,696 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 12 points this week.

The speculator position was 115,175 net contracts this week with a jump of 11,892 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen speculator position rounds out the top five in the extreme standings this week. The Japanese yen speculator level is at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -10 points this week. The overall speculator position was 144,595 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,554 contracts in the speculator bets.

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This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent or minimum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8 points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,470,920 net contracts this week with a drop by -74,384 contracts in the speculator bets.

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Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the speculator level is at just a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -40 points this week. The speculator position was -369,282 net contracts this week with a small gain of 2,306 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The SOFR 3-Months speculator level resides at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -29 points this week. The overall speculator position was -1,132,456 net contracts this week with a reduction by -202,389 contracts in the speculator bets.

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Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Sugar speculator level is at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19 points this week. The speculator position was -19,515 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -15,671 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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Bitcoin

Finally, the Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17 points this week. The speculator position was -2,009 net contracts this week with an increase of 303 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.