On February 26 (A), a strong bullish impulse started in the Bitcoin market. Its trajectory is visually described by a blue line. The price of bitcoins developed along it — this can be interpreted in such a way that market participants agreed that the value of the cryptocurrency was increasing.
If the price of Bitcoin deviated from the blue line, it was only for a short period of time. For example, to pierce the psychological level of USD 60,000 on March 5th.
However, the bullish momentum changed on March 15th, and this can be seen on the BTC/USD chart today:
→ the blue line began to work as resistance (shown by the first arrow);
→ the level of USD 70,000 also began to act as resistance (shown by the second arrow).
BTC price briefly deviated from breaking through the psychological USD 65,000 level – but it appears that due to said resistances, bulls may now have trouble getting Bitcoin price back onto the upward trajectory shown by the blue line.
This could mean that the market’s consensus on the value of BTC has changed – the chart suggests that a price of over USD 70k per Bitcoin may be considered overpriced (not surprising after A→B’s rise of over 40% in 14 days).
On the other hand, demand remains high ahead of the halving (scheduled for April 19).
According to Matt Hougan (a top executive at Bitwise, one of the BTC ETF providers), about 40% of independent registered financial advisors at Barron’s Summit owned Bitcoin. And this number among their clients is about 5-10%, which leaves potential for further growth.
Matt Hougan also noted the growing concern about the huge US government debt, and Bitcoin in this case acts as an insurance asset.
Given the strong fundamentals and signs of technical weakness near the last historical high, it is reasonable to assume that the price of Bitcoin may form some kind of consolidation zone around USD 70,000, thereby suggesting the levels that most market participants consider a fair price for Bitcoin at the moment.
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