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By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 22nd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Mexican Peso, Canadian Dollar & Japanese Yen

Speculators Nets FX Futures COT Chart
The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (5,942 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (3,751 contracts), the Japanese Yen (3,063 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,685 contracts), Bitcoin (634 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (214 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were  the British Pound (-28,621 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-6,797 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,336 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,428 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-2,706 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

British Pound Speculator Bets fall to 22-Week Low

Highlighting this week’s currency speculators data is the sharp drop in the British Pound Sterling speculator bets.

The GBP speculator positions fell this week by -28,621 contracts and dropped for the second straight week. This was also the fifth time over the last six weeks that speculators have reduced their positioning for a 6-week drop by -51,064 contracts. This week’s decline marked the largest one-week drop in just about a year and takes the current speculator standing (+570 contracts) to the lowest level since February 18th, a span of 22 weeks.

Helping dent the speculator position for the British Pound Sterling is the outlook that the Bank of England could be reducing their benchmark interest rates. According to Reuters, traders see around an 80% chance of an interest rate reduction as early as August.

Despite the negative sentiment this week for the British Pound Sterling, the currency’s exchange rate continues to be near the highest levels since 2022 against the US dollar. This week, the GBP currency closed just below the 1.3500 level and saw a modest gain for the week.

Elsewhere in currency market prices:
– The Euro led the major market prices with an increase of over 1% against the US Dollar this week.
– The Mexican Peso, the New Zealand Dollar, the Australian Dollar, the Swiss Franc, and the Japanese Yen all saw higher exchange rates against the USD, varying from 0.75% to 1% gains.
– The US Dollar Index was the leading loser on the week with a decline of -0.84%.
– Bitcoin also saw a very modest small decline after recent all-time highs.


Currencies Data:

Speculators FX Futures COT Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & EuroFX

Speculators Strength Scores FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (80 percent) and the EuroFX (77 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (66 percent), New Zealand Dollar (61 percent) and the Mexican Peso (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (6 percent), Bitcoin (13 percent) and the Australian Dollar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.2 percent)
EuroFX (76.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (77.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (32.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (80.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (79.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (55.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (56.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (54.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (18.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (60.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (68.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (57.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (54.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (65.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.2 percent)
Bitcoin (13.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.0 percent)


New Zealand Dollar & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trends FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (21 percent) and the EuroFX (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (10 percent) and Bitcoin (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The British Pound (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-11 percent), the US Dollar Index (-11 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-10.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-9.4 percent)
EuroFX (12.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (17.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-24.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-2.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-10.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (20.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (31.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-3.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-7.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-5.4 percent)
Bitcoin (3.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-3.7 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 47.4 37.0 8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 57.0 25.9 9.7
– Net Position: -3,451 3,988 -537
– Gross Longs: 16,925 13,234 2,946
– Gross Shorts: 20,376 9,246 3,483
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 5.7 94.4 23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.7 8.2 11.3

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 125,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 128,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.4 55.6 11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.6 76.7 5.2
– Net Position: 125,515 -177,713 52,198
– Gross Longs: 248,380 469,100 96,216
– Gross Shorts: 122,865 646,813 44,018
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.6 20.7 84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.4 -9.0 -12.7

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -28,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.0 34.8 16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 47.7 37.7 13.8
– Net Position: 570 -5,739 5,169
– Gross Longs: 93,760 67,928 32,179
– Gross Shorts: 93,190 73,667 27,010
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.7 61.5 73.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -24.3 22.7 -7.9

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 106,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,063 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.5 32.4 14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.5 69.9 10.5
– Net Position: 106,645 -117,360 10,715
– Gross Longs: 164,411 101,532 43,676
– Gross Shorts: 57,766 218,892 32,961
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.0 21.3 68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.4 13.0 -31.1

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,065 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.7 69.0 20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.1 34.0 20.7
– Net Position: -26,065 26,431 -366
– Gross Longs: 8,087 52,184 15,305
– Gross Shorts: 34,152 25,753 15,671
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.1 42.6 77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.7 10.7 -7.6

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -70,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.5 70.1 11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.5 34.5 12.4
– Net Position: -70,343 71,510 -1,167
– Gross Longs: 23,086 140,760 23,647
– Gross Shorts: 93,429 69,250 24,814
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.0 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.4 43.9 40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.2 -8.3 -8.9

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -81,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.5 65.1 14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 65.9 17.2 12.0
– Net Position: -81,255 77,341 3,914
– Gross Longs: 25,066 105,142 23,352
– Gross Shorts: 106,321 27,801 19,438
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.8 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 18.6 76.0 59.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.0 8.1 -6.0

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,635 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.1 51.4 9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.3 43.9 10.0
– Net Position: -3,162 3,291 -129
– Gross Longs: 11,955 22,656 4,276
– Gross Shorts: 15,117 19,365 4,405
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.8 37.8 51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 20.9 -19.7 -7.4

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 56,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,942 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.5 37.6 4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.0 72.6 1.7
– Net Position: 56,064 -60,340 4,276
– Gross Longs: 99,081 64,766 7,251
– Gross Shorts: 43,017 125,106 2,975
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.3 43.2 46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.4 2.9 6.1

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,172 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 62.3 31.6 4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.6 63.0 1.1
– Net Position: 25,857 -29,388 3,531
– Gross Longs: 58,202 29,484 4,575
– Gross Shorts: 32,345 58,872 1,044
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 4.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.5 33.0 40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.9 10.8 -0.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 634 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.4 5.4 5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 85.4 1.3 3.6
– Net Position: -1,852 1,247 605
– Gross Longs: 24,447 1,659 1,710
– Gross Shorts: 26,299 412 1,105
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 4.0 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 13.4 84.4 68.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.3 -11.0 17.5

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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