By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 22nd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & British Pound
The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (16,693 contracts) with the British Pound (13,981 contracts), the Mexican Peso (7,896 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (6,183 contracts), the Japanese Yen (5,959 contracts), the Australian Dollar (4,266 contracts), the Swiss Franc (3,110 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (855 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-4,252 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,802 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-1,392 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Currency Speculators drop US Dollar Index Bets into Bearish territory
Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued decrease in sentiment for the US Dollar Index. Speculative positions for the USD Index declined this week by -2,802 contracts and have fallen in five out of the last six weeks. This amounts to a total decline of approximately -10,000 net contracts over the past six weeks.
The deterioration in sentiment has brought the Dollar Index into its first bearish position (currently at -974 net contracts) since December, a span of 19 weeks dating back to December 10th 2024.
The Dollar Index (DXY) price has been falling sharply as well and the DXY closed this week under the major 100.00 level for the first time since a very brief spell in July of 2023. The DXY has tested this level numerous times over the past few years but has bounced higher each time. The DXY price has experienced a sharp decrease since January with an approximate decline by 10% which is a significant move for a major currency in a short amount of time.
The current pricing for the DXY is oversold and could bring dip buyers into the market but continued bearish action would bring the 95 level into play which looks to be the next major historical support level. The next level lower would by the 92-93 area which has not been touched since 2021.
Currencies Data:
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (100 percent) are at extreme high levels and lead the currency markets this week. The Canadian Dollar (58 percent) and the EuroFX (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the US Dollar Index (5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (33 percent), Bitcoin (34 percent) and the Australian Dollar (38 percent).
3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (10.5 percent)
EuroFX (53.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (55.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (45.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (39.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (98.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (49.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (43.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (57.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (50.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (37.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (34.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (33.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (26.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (49.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (45.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (99.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (98.8 percent)
Bitcoin (33.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (64.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (34 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (30 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (23 percent), the EuroFX (20 percent) and the Japanese Yen (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.
Bitcoin (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-37 percent), Australian Dollar (-5 percent) and the British Pound (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-36.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-26.8 percent)
EuroFX (19.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (30.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-3.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-5.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (12.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (10.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (23.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (18.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (33.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (-4.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-7.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (30.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (26.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (5.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (7.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (7.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (5.6 percent)
Bitcoin (-50.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-0.6 percent)
Individual COT Forex Markets:
US Dollar Index Futures:
The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,828 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 56.9 | 28.2 | 9.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 59.8 | 22.2 | 12.0 |
| – Net Position: | -974 | 1,985 | -1,011 |
| – Gross Longs: | 18,696 | 9,286 | 2,951 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 19,670 | 7,301 | 3,962 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 4.7 | 98.0 | 16.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -36.9 | 38.0 | -19.8 |
Euro Currency Futures:
The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 65,028 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,252 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,280 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| EURO Currency Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.3 | 55.8 | 13.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.2 | 72.2 | 6.0 |
| – Net Position: | 65,028 | -117,941 | 52,913 |
| – Gross Longs: | 196,205 | 401,257 | 96,353 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 131,177 | 519,198 | 43,440 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 53.5 | 41.0 | 90.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 19.8 | -23.9 | 40.4 |
British Pound Sterling Futures:
The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,509 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| BRITISH POUND Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 52.4 | 30.3 | 16.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 41.0 | 44.5 | 13.6 |
| – Net Position: | 20,490 | -25,439 | 4,949 |
| – Gross Longs: | 94,021 | 54,477 | 29,322 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 73,531 | 79,916 | 24,373 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 45.3 | 51.3 | 72.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -3.9 | 2.8 | 3.7 |
Japanese Yen Futures:
The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a new all-time record high net position of 177,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,959 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171,855 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| JAPANESE YEN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 57.6 | 28.6 | 12.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 7.0 | 85.8 | 6.1 |
| – Net Position: | 177,814 | -200,922 | 23,108 |
| – Gross Longs: | 202,373 | 100,299 | 44,643 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 24,559 | 301,221 | 21,535 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 8.2 to 1 | 0.3 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 100.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 12.1 | -13.1 | 18.1 |
Swiss Franc Futures:
The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,474 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,110 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,584 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| SWISS FRANC Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.3 | 74.4 | 18.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 42.2 | 37.7 | 19.8 |
| – Net Position: | -25,474 | 26,742 | -1,268 |
| – Gross Longs: | 5,322 | 54,226 | 13,198 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 30,796 | 27,484 | 14,466 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 49.3 | 43.1 | 73.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 23.3 | -25.2 | 17.0 |
Canadian Dollar Futures:
The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -67,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 16,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,860 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.4 | 82.2 | 9.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 34.3 | 52.9 | 11.9 |
| – Net Position: | -67,167 | 73,173 | -6,006 |
| – Gross Longs: | 18,357 | 205,325 | 23,821 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 85,524 | 132,152 | 29,827 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 57.9 | 44.6 | 26.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 33.7 | -35.2 | 22.1 |
Australian Dollar Futures:
The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -54,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,848 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.2 | 65.8 | 12.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 42.9 | 39.4 | 10.5 |
| – Net Position: | -54,582 | 50,430 | 4,152 |
| – Gross Longs: | 27,175 | 125,583 | 24,156 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 81,757 | 75,153 | 20,004 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 37.6 | 60.0 | 60.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.5 | -3.0 | 29.8 |
New Zealand Dollar Futures:
The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -26,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,078 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 15.8 | 77.1 | 6.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 58.7 | 33.3 | 7.2 |
| – Net Position: | -26,895 | 27,449 | -554 |
| – Gross Longs: | 9,897 | 48,333 | 3,948 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 36,792 | 20,884 | 4,502 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 33.4 | 65.0 | 46.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 30.1 | -31.3 | 23.4 |
Mexican Peso Futures:
The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 41,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,896 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,269 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| MEXICAN PESO Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 51.9 | 43.2 | 3.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.3 | 75.7 | 2.8 |
| – Net Position: | 41,165 | -42,348 | 1,183 |
| – Gross Longs: | 67,624 | 56,341 | 4,828 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 26,459 | 98,689 | 3,645 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.6 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 49.7 | 52.4 | 29.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 5.7 | -6.2 | 5.4 |
Brazilian Real Futures:
The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 49,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,032 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| BRAZIL REAL Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 71.2 | 23.5 | 4.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.3 | 81.5 | 2.2 |
| – Net Position: | 49,887 | -51,682 | 1,795 |
| – Gross Longs: | 63,534 | 21,010 | 3,743 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 13,647 | 72,692 | 1,948 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 4.7 to 1 | 0.3 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 99.7 | 0.4 | 31.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 7.6 | -7.4 | -0.7 |
Bitcoin Futures:
The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 586 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| BITCOIN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 81.8 | 3.8 | 4.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 84.6 | 1.7 | 3.8 |
| – Net Position: | -806 | 612 | 194 |
| – Gross Longs: | 23,058 | 1,080 | 1,253 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 23,864 | 468 | 1,059 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 33.7 | 78.7 | 38.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -50.9 | 47.7 | 25.7 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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