By InvestMacro
The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 22nd.
This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.
To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)
Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:
MSCI EAFE MINI
The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a gain by 13 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 8,032 net contracts this week with a boost of 8,905 contract in the weekly speculator bets.
Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.
Silver
The Silver speculator position comes in second this week in the extreme standings. The Silver speculator level resides at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a dip by -8 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 60,620 net contracts this week with a slight uptick by 1,172 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq speculator position comes up next in the extreme standings this week with the Nasdaq-Mini speculator level at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise by 20 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 30,728 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,164 contracts in the speculator bets.
Palladium
The Palladium speculator position is next in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Palladium speculator level sits at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost by 26 percentage points this week.
The speculator position was -2,300 net contracts this week with a gain of 1,281 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
Live Cattle
The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 85 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -6 percentage points this week.
The speculator position was 108,858 net contracts this week with a rise of 4,413 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:
5-Year Bond
The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the 5-Year speculator level at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed no change this week. The overall speculator position was -2,469,924 net contracts this week with an increase by 35,604 contracts in the speculator bets.
Sugar
The Sugar speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -12 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -59,729 net contracts this week with a change of -7,630 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
Ultra 10-Year
The Ultra 10-Year speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week as the Ultra 10-Year speculator level resides at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -6 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -393,327 net contracts this week with a decrease of -14,211 contracts in the speculator bets.
Soybean Meal
The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -10 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -73,578 net contracts this week with a gain of 6,164 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
US Dollar Index
Next, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week as the USD Index speculator level sits at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.
The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction by -11 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -3,451 net contracts this week with a edge higher by 214 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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