“1)US Fed Policy, 2)FPI inflows, 3)crude oil prices, 4)global cues, 5)inflation and 6) general elections in India are the key trigger points for FY25,” says Shrikant Chouhan, Head – Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
In an interview with ETMarkets, Chouhan said: “Midcap and smallcap indices are trading at historically elevated levels versus their large-cap. counterparts. Investors need to stay with quality companies with growth prospects and reasonable valuations,” Edited excerpts:
It has been a volatile month so far – what is fueling volatility in the markets?
Multiple factors including the monetary policy announcement from various central banks, upcoming US Fed Reserve meet, rise in crude oil price, flows in the market have been keeping the markets volatile.On the domestic front, the macro data points have been healthy with Q3FY24 real GDP growth surprising on the upside.
GST collections continue to grow in double-digit and February CPI inflation remained unchanged from January at 5.1% and the core CPI inflation moderating to 3.4%.
Globally, markets continue to watch the Central Bank actions on monetary policy. Japan’s central bank raised the benchmark interest rate.
How should investors value small & midcaps for investment in FY25? How to determine which stock is overpriced after the recent rally?
The midcap and the smallcap indices saw a sharp rise over the past one year. The BSE midcap and the BSE smallcap indices have corrected between 6-12% from their peaks.Despite the correction, the returns in the BSE midcap and the BSE smallcap indices are still significantly high in the past one year.
Midcap and smallcap indices are trading at historically elevated levels versus their large-cap. counterparts. Investors need to stay with quality companies with growth prospects and reasonable valuations.
As we close the FY24 – how do you see FY25 for Indian markets? Any trigger points which investors should take note off?
1)US Fed Policy, 2)FPI inflows, 3)crude oil prices, 4)global cues, 5)inflation and 6) general elections in India are the key trigger points for FY25.
Your list of sectors that investors should not ignore in FY25?
We should not ignore sectors like Banks, IT, Auto, Pharma and FMCG in FY25
What are your views on the semiconductor trend for the next FY? Will the next set of multibaggers come from a manufacturing/IT theme?
Recently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated three semiconductor plants in India. One of those plants is a joint venture between Tata Electronics and Taiwan’s Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp.
These investments are positive for the industry and Indian Economy. India wants to be among the world’s top five semiconductor producers in the next five years.
Made in India chips manufactured in India will help create a strong and significant presence for India in global value chains making India a semiconductor hub for the world.
SIPs have hit Rs 19,000 cr mark/month. The trend is picking up fast – what does it say about the retail investor behavior and how do you see the trend picking up in FY25?
The flows have increased from 4300 cr per month in FY17 to 19000 cr in Q4FY24. Our assessment suggests that SIP AUM has grown 30% annually in the last 6 years, which is twice as fast as the growth in the overall mutual fund industry’s assets base.
Most MF players believe that SIP per month would reach Rs 25,000 crore in FY25.
Reasonable macro-economic outlook, undiminished expectations of recovery in profitability and volumes and strong medium-term narrative about India is keeping the retail investor positive on Indian Markets.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
