EUR/AUD’s extended rebound last week suggests short term bottoming at 1.6211, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias stays mildly on the upside this week. Sustained trading above 55 D EMA (now at 1.6412) will argue that fall from 1.6742 has completed, and turn near term outlook bullish. On the downside, though, below 1.6322 minor support will bring retest of 1.6211 support instead.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In case of deeper fall, strong support is expected around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.7062 is in favor as a later stage.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5962) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.
