EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.5996 extended higher last week and broke through 55 D EMA (now at 1.6216). The development is taken as the first sign that whole correction from 1.0762 has completed with three waves down to 1.6000 fibonacci support. Further rise is expected this week as long as 1.6171 minor support holds, to 1.6148 resistance. Firm break there will solidify this bullish case. Nevertheless, break of 1.6171 minor support will dampen this bullish view and bring retest of 1.5996 instead.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) only. Strong support is still expected between 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound. Break of 1.6148 resistance will argue that the correction has completed.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.5977) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.
