EUR/AUD’s correction from 1.7180 short term top continued last week, but downside is contained above 1.6474 support so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rally is in favor. On the upside, above 1.6745 will argue that the pullback has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.7180. However, firm break of 1.6474 will dampen the bullish view and bring deeper pullback towards 1.5996 support.
In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 1.7062 medium term top should have completed at 1.5996. Larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is resuming. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5996 at 1.7715. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.6474 support holds.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.9799 (2020 high) are seen as a long term decline at the same scale as the rise from 1.1602 (2012 low). Rebound from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg. As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6006) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.
