EUR/CHF rebounded further to 0.9797 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations. But further rally is expected as long as 0.9708 minor support holds. Break of 0.9797 will target a retest on 0.9847 high. However, break of 0.9708 will turn bias to the downside, to extend the corrective pattern form 0.9847 with another falling leg.
In the bigger picture, while 55 D EMA (now at 0.9644) was breached, EUR/CHF rebounded strongly since then. Rise from 0.9252 medium term bottom should still be in progress. Break of 0.9847 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA will argue that the rebound has completed.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Firm break of 1.0095 resistance is needed to be the first sign of long term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
