EUR/JPY’s fall from 175.41 accelerated to as low as 164.81 last week, but recovered ahead of 164.29 resistance turned support. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 169.98 resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 164.29 support turned resistance will indicate that larger scale correction is underway for 155.91 fibonacci level.
In the bigger picture, immediate focus is on 164.29 resistance turned support. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullishness for resuming the up trend through 175.41 at a later stage. However, decisive break of 164.29 will indicate that fall from 175.41 is at least correcting the rise from 124.73, with risk of bearish trend reversal. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 124.37 to 175.41 at 155.91.
In the long term picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is seen as the third leg of the whole up trend from 94.11 (2012 low). As long as 164.29 resistance turned support holds, further rise should be seen to 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 114.42 at 191.32. However, sustained break of 164.29 would risk deeper medium term fall back towards 55 M EMA (now at 145.09) even as a correction.
