EUR/USD’s rebound from 1.0694 extended to as high as 1.0980 last week. The development suggests that fall from 1.1138 has completed as a correction to rise from 1.0447. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 1.1138 first. On the downside, below 1.0867 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0694 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.
In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. It’s still early to call for bullish trend reversal with the pair staying inside falling channel in the monthly chart. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 1.1055) and break of 1.1274 resistance will raise the chance of reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.
