Former Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan said India will still remain a lower middle country if the growth rate remains at 6 per cent annually without any rise in population by 2047 (Amrit Kaal) and will be reaching the end of the demographic dividend by then.
Speaking at a programme organised by Manthan in Hyderabad, the former RBI governor said if the country does not grow faster, it will grow older (demographically) before it gets richer, which means there is the burden of an aging population to deal with also at that point.
“If you do the math, at 6 per cent a year, you double every 12 years, and therefore in 24 years, we’ll be four times our per capita income. Today, the per capita income in India, as you know, is just a little below $2,500 per person. multiply by four, we get $10,000 per person…So if you do the math, at our current rate of growth, you know, strong as it is highest in the G20, we don’t get rich but we stay lower middle income till 2047,” he said.
The economist said some southern states are growing with regards to population at below reproduction rate, in other words, the fertility rate has fallen below reproduction rate thus slowing the growth.
“In other words, we will start the process of aging at some point around that time, which leads to the alarming question if we don’t grow faster, we will grow old before we grow rich, which means we all have all the burdens of an aging population to deal with also at that point,” he said.
According to him, the current pace of growth is not enough to employ all those who are entering the labour force and is insufficient to make the country get rich, before it gets old.
(With PTI inputs)
