GBP/USD edged higher to 1.2859 last week, but subsequent decline argues that rise from 1.2298 has completed already, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.2633 resistance turned support first. Firm break there will target 1.2445 and below. For now, risk will be on the downside as long as 1.2859 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.2892 is seen as the third leg which might have completed already. Break of 1.2892 resistance will argue that larger up trend from 1.0351(2022 low) is ready to resume through 1.3141. Meanwhile, break of 1.2445 support will extend the corrective pattern with another decline instead.
In the long term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.0351 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. But momentum of the rebound from 1.3051 argues GBP/USD is merely in consolidation, rather than trend reversal. Range trading is likely between 1.0351/4248 for some more time.
