The price of gold fell to $2370.00 per troy ounce by Thursday following the release of the minutes from the latest US Federal Reserve meeting. The general tone of the Fed’s policymakers was notably cautious, aligning with previous calls for a restrained approach to monetary policy.
The Fed indicated that more time is needed to be confident that US inflation is declining towards the 2% target. This cautious sentiment has tempered market expectations of imminent interest rate cuts. Previously, the market anticipated two rate cuts (in September and December); now, it expects no more than one. Consequently, the US interest rate is likely to remain at 5.5% per annum for an extended period before the Fed considers revising it.
Higher interest rates reduce the attractiveness of gold, which does not yield interest. This dynamic has contributed to the recent decline in gold prices.
Technical analysis of XAU/USD
On the H4 chart, XAU/USD has formed a downward impulse to the level of 2404.40, followed by a correction to 2433.90. The limits of the consolidation range are now well-defined, and the market has recently broken out downwards. This breakout opens the potential for a further decline to 2322.00. After reaching this level, a rebound to 2385.35 is expected. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero but directed strictly downwards towards new lows.
On the H1 chart, a decline to 2385.00 has been executed, followed by the formation of a consolidation range around this level. The market has recently broken out downwards from this range, opening the potential for a further decline to 2337.35, which is the local target. Following this, a correction back to 2385.00 (testing from below) is possible. Further decline towards 2321.45 may follow. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above 20 and poised to rise to 50 before another potential decline to 20.
Summary
Gold prices have declined due to the Fed’s cautious stance on monetary policy and the expectation of prolonged high interest rates. Technical indicators suggest further potential declines, with possible corrective rebounds along the way. Investors should monitor these levels closely as market conditions evolve.
