Gold leads strong Metals Markets Positions :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (10,147 contracts), Palladium (1,153 contracts), Copper (1,120 contracts), Silver (927 contracts) and Steel (187 contracts) also showing positive weeks. The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week was Platinum (-1,472 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold leads strong Metals Markets Positions

Gold led the market this week in terms of rising speculator positions, with the Gold price continuing to trade near its all-time high levels. This week, it closed a little below $3,360 and is still in an uptrend.

On the downside, Platinum was the only market to see a decline on the week, with a modest -1,472 contract decline. Platinum has also been a strong mover in the markets and is trading exceptionally higher since May, with a rise of almost 45% in just the past few months as the price has taken off.

Overall, the only metals market that still has a negative speculator level is Palladium at -3,581 contracts. Despite this bearish position, Palladium prices have also been on the rise, not as quite as sharp as the other metals but has started an upward move and risen to levels not seen since 2023.

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Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Silver & Palladium

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (90 percent) and Palladium (78 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (73 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (57.3 percent)
Silver (90.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (89.2 percent)
Copper (71.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (70.1 percent)
Platinum (61.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (65.1 percent)
Palladium (77.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (68.9 percent)
Steel (73.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.3 percent)

 

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Palladium & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (28 percent) and Copper (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-2 percent) joining as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (9.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.9 percent)
Silver (-1.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (6.9 percent)
Copper (15.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (15.9 percent)
Platinum (-1.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-10.8 percent)
Palladium (27.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.0 percent)
Steel (11.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (3.0 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 213,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 202,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.2	16.9	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	72.8	4.3
– Net Position:	213,115	-250,688	37,573
– Gross Longs:	270,227	75,989	56,976
– Gross Shorts:	57,112	326,677	19,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.2	32.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-10.8	15.8

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 59,448 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.6	20.7	18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	67.1	7.1
– Net Position:	59,448	-79,648	20,200
– Gross Longs:	85,022	35,466	32,421
– Gross Shorts:	25,574	115,114	12,221
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.3	6.9	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-0.6	8.9

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 40,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,604 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	28.2	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	46.9	6.5
– Net Position:	40,724	-42,025	1,301
– Gross Longs:	75,423	63,262	15,789
– Gross Shorts:	34,699	105,287	14,488
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.2	34.2	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-12.9	-9.8

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 19,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.2	21.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	46.3	7.2
– Net Position:	19,302	-22,849	3,547
– Gross Longs:	55,186	19,611	10,187
– Gross Shorts:	35,884	42,460	6,640
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	41.7	39.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	0.9	4.2

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	35.0	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.0	22.9	9.4
– Net Position:	-3,581	2,402	1,179
– Gross Longs:	8,344	6,945	3,042
– Gross Shorts:	11,925	4,543	1,863
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.6	15.6	81.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.9	-31.3	17.8

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	68.9	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	71.4	0.7
– Net Position:	438	-670	232
– Gross Longs:	6,700	18,299	427
– Gross Shorts:	6,262	18,969	195
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	26.8	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-12.1	15.1

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.