As shown by the daily XAU/USD chart:
→ Since November 2022, the price has been moving in an upward channel, marked in orange;
→ Since the start of 2024, the price has risen by approximately 12.5%.
What are the gold price forecasts for the end of 2024?
According to Investing.com, Georgette Boele, a senior sustainability economist at ABN Amro, published a cautious forecast on 27 June, predicting a gold price of $2000 per ounce by the end of the year. In her view:
→ Gold prices peaked at the beginning of the year but have since lost momentum.
→ Anticipated easing measures by central banks have not provided the expected support to gold prices.
→ Concerns about physical gold shortages, which were a factor during the COVID crisis, are unfounded in the current market.
On the other hand, longer-term forecasts are optimistic. Analysts at Bank of America believe the gold price could rise to $3000 within 12-18 months. Their arguments include:
→ Lowering Federal Reserve rates could trigger an inflow of funds into ETFs backed by physical gold;
→ The desire to reduce USD holdings in portfolios is likely to lead to increased gold purchases by central banks.
Technical analysis of the XAU/USD chart shows that:
→ After the price reached the upper boundary of the channel twice in the first half of the year (indicated by numbers), the bulls lost momentum;
→ This resulted in a consolidation pattern resembling a triangle (shown by blue lines), within which the gold price fluctuated throughout June.
Note that a similar consolidation was observed at the beginning of 2024, and a bullish breakout led to a sharp rally.
It is possible that a breakout of the current pattern could lead to a trend that significantly influences which gold price forecast—BofA’s bullish or ABN Amro’s bearish—proves more accurate.
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