Gold seeks fresh momentum :: InvestMacro

• Gold trading between key weekly levels

• Incoming US data could move precious metal

• H4 charts show possible bullish presence

• Four potential targets identified

• H4 bullish scenario invalidated below 2001.68

Gold struggled for direction on Wednesday as markets remained cautious ahead of key US data that may impact bets on Fed rate cuts.

After swinging within a wide range since the start of the year, a significant move could be in the works due to fresh fundamental forces. It would be wise to keep an eye on the final quarter US GDP report on Thursday and PCE report on Friday which could rock the precious metal ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.

Redirecting our focus back to the technicals…

Gold has been oscillating between a weekly support level around 2005.49 and a weekly resistance level around 2060.49. The price is approaching the middle band again and although the current market structure shows a down trend, the momentum can easily shift to the upside. If the price goes higher than the last top, this will result in an early stage of a new uptrend in process.    

A look at the 4-hour time frame can provide more precision.

On the 4-hour chart the price has been oscillating around the 50 Linear Weighted Moving Average with the Momentum and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillators both confirming a possible build up to the demand side.

If the price reaches the 2039.50 level, a long opportunity becomes feasible.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to the trigger level at 2039.50 and dragging it to the last bottom at 2001.68, four possible targets can be determined:

• The first target is possible at 2054.63 (Target 1).

• The second price target is probable at 2062.19 (Target 2).

• The third price target is likely at 2077.32 (Target 2).

• The fourth and last price target is feasible at 2096.23 (Target 4).

If the price breaks past the 2001.68 level, this scenario is no longer applicable, and a short option becomes viable.