How are Oil Prices Impact by Wars, and What Can We Expect in 2024 :: InvestMacro

War can impact oil prices significantly, especially if one of the oil production companies is participating in such a war. Production and refining are critical elements of an oil infrastructure; those assets could be destroyed or slowed due to war activity. War can halt supply routes. For example, in the current Middle East war, Huti rebels are attacking merchant ships that are carrying oil, which has forced companies to take a different route away from the Suez Canal and around the tip of South Africa. Oil prices can increase or decrease during geopolitical unrest if there is concern that a war will reduce energy demand.

Supply Disruptions

Wars can disrupt oil production and supply, particularly in major oil-producing regions or countries, and impact crude oil investing. Infrastructure, refineries, pipelines, and other oil facilities may become targets or collateral damage, leading to supply disruptions. This reduced supply can put upward pressure on oil prices.

A supply disruption refers to an event or circumstance that interrupts or hinders the normal flow of goods or services from the suppliers to the consumers. It occurs when a sudden and unforeseen interruption occurs in a particular product or resource’s production, distribution, or availability.

Political conflicts, wars, sanctions, or trade disputes can disrupt the supply of commodities by affecting the production, transportation, or export/import channels.

Natural disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, or wildfires can damage infrastructure, disrupt production facilities, or impact transportation networks, leading to supply disruptions.Technical failures, accidents, or operational issues in production facilities, refineries, pipelines, or other supply chain components can interrupt the normal supply flow.

Labor disputes, strikes, or protests by workers in the industry can disrupt operations, leading to reduced production and constrained supply. Regulation changes, compliance requirements, or government policies can impact the supply chain and production, causing disruptions.

When a supply disruption occurs, it often decreases the availability of the affected product or resource. Subsequently, it can result in price increases or price volatility. The severity and duration of the disruption can vary, ranging from temporary disruptions resolved quickly to prolonged and significant disruptions that have broader implications on markets and economies.

Geopolitical Risk

Wars or conflicts can create geopolitical unrest and uncertainty, contributing to volatility in oil markets. Investors and market participants may anticipate potential supply disruptions or geopolitical risks, leading to speculative buying or selling of oil futures and affecting prices.

Volatility in the oil markets refers to the degree of price fluctuation or variation in oil prices over a certain period. It measures the extent to which the price of oil, or oil-related financial instruments, changes within a specific timeframe. High volatility suggests that oil prices are experiencing significant and rapid changes in value, while low volatility indicates relatively stable and predictable price movements. Various factors, such as supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, economic indicators, and market sentiment, can contribute to volatility in the oil markets.

Alter Sentiment

Wars create a sense of heightened risk and uncertainty among market participants. This situation can impact investor sentiment, leading to changes in oil prices. In times of conflict, investors may opt for safe-haven assets or reduce their exposure to potential risk, which can affect the demand and price of oil.

Market sentiment refers to the overall attitude or feeling of investors or traders towards a particular financial market or asset. It represents the collective psychology and emotions influencing market participants’ decision-making processes. Market sentiment can be categorized as bullish (optimistic), bearish (pessimistic), or neutral (lacking a clear bias).

Various factors influence market sentiment, including economic indicators, geopolitical events, news releases, corporate earnings announcements, and investor behavior. Positive market sentiment often leads to increased buying activity, rising prices, and an optimistic outlook. Conversely, negative market sentiment can result in selling pressure, declining prices, and a pessimistic outlook.

Sentiment plays a crucial role in the oil markets as it influences the behavior and decisions of market participants, including traders, investors, producers, and consumers. Positive sentiment can drive increased demand for oil and result in higher prices. For example, optimism about global economic growth could lead to expectations of increased oil consumption, pushing oil prices upward.

Measuring market sentiment is subjective and relies on various tools and indicators. Traders and analysts use surveys, sentiment indices, options market analysis, social media sentiment analysis, and technical analysis to gauge market sentiment. Considering market sentiment can help traders and investors assess the broader market environment and make informed decisions about buying or selling assets.

Demand Destruction

Wars can lead to economic disruptions, such as reduced trade, decreased consumer spending, and business contraction. This scenario has the potential to reduce oil demand, impacting prices. Additionally, wars can result in population displacement, economic instability, and infrastructure destruction, further contributing to lower oil demand.

Demand destruction in the oil industry can significantly affect oil prices, as a decrease in demand can lead to oversupply and downward pressure on prices. Oil producers and market participants closely monitor factors influencing demand to assess potential demand destruction and adjust their production levels and strategies accordingly.

Shifts in consumer preferences, lifestyle changes, or technological advancements can result in declining demand for specific products. For example, a growing focus on renewable energy and electric vehicles may reduce the demand for fossil fuels.

Significant price hikes can deter consumers from purchasing or using a particular product in large quantities. This decline in demand due to higher prices can be considered demand destruction. The availability of substitutes or alternative products can significantly impact demand. If consumers find cheaper or more efficient options, the demand for a specific product may decrease, leading to demand destruction.

How Does War Impact Oil Refining

Refining needs drive oil demand. Oil refining is a complex and capital-intensive industry, with refineries investing in advanced technologies and equipment to improve efficiency, product quality, and environmental performance. Refineries play a critical role in meeting society’s energy needs by converting crude oil into a wide range of valuable petroleum products that drive transportation, heating, and industrial processes.

Crude oil is heated in a distillation column. After treatment, the different refined products are blended in specific proportions to meet desired specifications and optimize performance. Blending can involve the addition of additives and chemicals to enhance product properties and meet regulatory standards.

The refined products are then transported and distributed via pipelines, tankers, trucks, or rail to various markets and end-users, such as gas stations, airports, industries, and residential consumers.

A war in a region that is a significant producer or exporter of crude oil can lead to disruptions in oil supply to refineries. This can result in decreased feedstock for refining operations, potentially leading to reduced production or even temporary shutdowns of refineries.

In the event of military conflict, refining infrastructure, such as refineries, pipelines, storage facilities, and transportation infrastructure, may become targets or collateral damage. Attacks on critical infrastructure can severely disrupt refining operations, leading to reduced capacity or complete shutdowns.

Refineries in or near conflict zones may face security risks, making it difficult to operate at full capacity. Concerns about personnel safety, potential attacks, or damage to infrastructure can hamper refining operations.

Spillover Effect

Even if a war does not directly involve major oil-producing regions, geopolitical tensions can spill over and impact neighboring countries or regions. Any perceived threat to oil supplies or transportation routes can affect market sentiment and oil prices.

What Might Happen in 2024

Wars are occurring on two fronts. Russia and Ukraine continue to fight, and there does not seem to be an end in sight. The Middle East war is creating supply chain disruptions in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, creating an uptick in shipping costs. The Energy Information Administration believes global crude oil production will decelerate in 2024, rising by 0.6 million barrels daily, down from 1.7 million barrels a day of growth in 2023. The focus is mainly on OPEC+ and their need to cut production to increase prices.

The Bottom Line

The upshot is that wars can significantly affect oil prices due to the potential disruptions they can cause in the global oil supply chain. Wars in major oil-producing regions can disrupt the production and distribution of crude oil. Conflict-related damage to infrastructure, attacks on oil fields or installations, or blockades of shipping routes can lead to a decrease in oil supply. Reduced supply relative to demand can drive up oil prices.

Armed conflicts can create geopolitical tensions that affect oil markets. The uncertainty and risk associated with wars or the threat of escalation can lead to market speculation and increased price volatility. Expecting potential supply disruptions can drive up prices even before actual disruptions occur.Wars can have broader economic consequences, such as slowing global growth, increased inflation, or trade disruptions. These factors can impact oil demand, which, in turn, affects oil prices. Economic downturns resulting from wars can lead to decreased oil demand and downward price pressure.

By Taylor Wilman