How macroeconomic indicators performed in January 2025?, ET BFSI

By Siddhi Nawar & Samriddhi Singh Mahar

As 2025 begins, India finds itself at a crucial juncture, balancing strong economic momentum with emerging economic headwinds. Exports have skyrocketed 67% in a decade, hitting USD 778.21 billion in 2023-24, even as global uncertainties and looming Trump tariffs cast shadows on trade. The RBI has injected a total of Rs 1.02 lakh crore into Open Market Operations (OMOs) to manage liquidity – Rs 59,000 crore through screen-based OMOs and Rs 43,000 crore via foreign exchange swaps.

Growth remains on track, with GDP projected at 6.4% for FY25, powered by 7.3% private consumption growth, signaling a rural demand revival. Investment stays resilient, with GFCF set to rise 6.4%, as per the Economic Survey 2025.

Yet, turbulence persists. January 2025 saw India’s steepest stock market decline in 23 years, with Nifty at 23,508.40 and Sensex at 77,500.57. The services PMI plunged to 56.5, its weakest since November 2022, though job creation and manufacturing offered some stability.

As policy measures, global shifts, and domestic resilience shape the months ahead, India’s economic trajectory hinges on how well it adapts to shifting tides, turning challenges into opportunities.

GST Collections

India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue for January 2025 reached Rs. 1,95,506 crore, a 12.3% increase from Rs. 1,74,106 crore in January 2024, marking the highest revenue since April 2024. CGST collections rose to Rs. 36,077 crore, while SGST collections increased to Rs. 44,942 crore.

Gross domestic revenue stood at Rs. 1,47,124 crore, up by 10% from Rs. 1,33,705 crore last year. Gross import revenue rose by 19.8%, reaching Rs. 48,382 crore.
Maharashtra led the state-wise GST collections with Rs. 32,335 crore, followed by Gujarat (Rs. 12,135 crore), Karnataka (Rs. 14,353 crore), Tamil Nadu (Rs. 11,496 crore), and Haryana (Rs. 10,284 crore).

On the lower end, Lakshadweep recorded the lowest GST collection at Rs. 1 crore, with other states like Manipur, Mizoram, and Nagaland also seeing low figures.

(Source: Ministry of Finance)

Inflation

India’s retail inflation (CPI) dropped to 4.31% in January 2025, down from 5.22% in December, bringing relief to consumers, especially in rural and urban areas. Food prices, a key CPI component, saw a notable decline.

On the wholesale front, WPI-based inflation stood at 2.31%, slightly down from 2.37% in December. The manufacturing sector showed strong growth with a 2.51% increase, a sharp recovery from -1.20% in January 2024, driven by the government’s focus on boosting domestic production.

(Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Ministry of Commerce and Industry)

Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI)

India’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for January showed mixed results across sectors.

The manufacturing sector kicked off the year on a strong note, with the PMI rising to 57.7 from 56.4 in December, driven by a surge in exports, marking the fastest growth in nearly 14 years. However, the services sector saw a slowdown, with the PMI dropping to 56.5, the lowest since November 2022, down from 59.3 in December. Despite the dip, growth remained robust, with continued job creation and support from the manufacturing sector.

(Source: S&P Global, HSBC PMI Report)

Index of Industrial Production (IIP)

India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 3.2% in December 2024, down from 5.2% in November. Sector-wise, Mining expanded by 2.6%, Manufacturing by 3.0%, and Electricity saw the highest growth at 6.2%.

The Quick Estimates of IIP rose to 157.2, up from 152.3 in December 2023, with sector indices standing at 143.1 (Mining), 156.2 (Manufacturing), and 192.8 (Electricity).

The top contributors to IIP growth in December 2024 were Primary goods, Intermediate goods, and Infrastructure/ construction goods

(Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation)

FII & DII

As FPI outflow increases to Rs 77, 211 crores, DIIs increase their investments, infusing nearly Rs 86,591.80 crores in the markets in January 2025.

In January 2025, the Indian stock market saw its longest monthly decline in 23 years, with this backdrop the Nifty 50 closing at 23,508.40 and the BSE Sensex at 77,500.57 on 31st January.

(Source: NSDL, BSE & NSE)

UPI

UPI transactions reached 16,996.00 million in volume and Rs 23,48,037.12 crore in value in January 2025, with the participation of 647 banks driving the ecosystem. In comparison, December saw 16,730.01 million transactions worth Rs 23,24,699.91 crore, facilitated by 641 banks.

(Source: NPCI)

Trade Merchandise

In January 2025, India’s total exports is estimated to be USD 74.97 billion, expanding to about 9.72% Y-o-Y in growth, whereas total recorded imports was USD 77.64 billion, increasing to about 12.98% Y-o-Y.

The trade deficit this month was recorded to be – USD 2.67 billion, which is a stark improvement from the previous month’s -USD 6.78 billion trade balance.

Services exports were recorded to be USD 38.55 billion and imports were recorded to be 18.22. Whereas, merchandise exports were recorded to be USD 36.43 billion and imports were recorded to be 59.42 billion, highlighting that the trade balance was mainly skewed due to the deficit in merchandise.

(Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry)