Surpassing the expectations of analysts, India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registered a robust growth of 8.4 per cent on an annual basis in the third quarter (October-December), as against a 8.1 per cent in the previous quarter, data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed Thursday.
The number for Q1, Q2 FY24 has also been revised upwards to 8.2 per cent (against 7.8 per cent) and 8.1 per cent (against 7.6 per cent) respectively.
According to a median poll of 15 economists conducted by ET, the economy was expected to grow by 6.6 per cent in the third quarter. Forecasts varied from 6 per cent to 7.2 per cent for the quarter ended December. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had estimated a growth rate of 6.5 per cent for the same period.
The FY24 estimate was also revised upwards to 7.6 per cent from 7 per cent. “Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 172.90 lakh crore, against the First Revised Estimates (FRE) of GDP for the year 2022-23 of Rs 160.71 lakh crore. The growth in real GDP during 2023-24 is estimated at 7.6 per cent as compared to 7.0 per cent in2022-23,” the official release stated.
A Reuters poll had anticipated that economic growth would fall below 7 per cent for the first time in the current fiscal year during the October-December period, due to a sluggish manufacturing sector and weakening consumption.
However, the numbers released have shown otherwise. The growth in manufacturing sector stood at 11.6 per cent as against 14.4 per cent in the previous quarter. The manufacturing sector had contracted 0.4 per cent in the same period last fiscal.
Agriculture sector contracted 0.8 per cent this quarter against a growth of 1.6 per cent in Q2. Mining grew 7.5 per cent, up from 11.1 per cent in the previous quarter.
The electricity and other public utilities expanded by 9 per cent against 10.5 per cent. Meanwhile, construction grew 9.5 per cent, from 13.5 per cent in the previous quarter.
Trade, hotels, transport, and communication expanded 6.7 per cent from 4.5 per cent.
A growing economy
India is expected to maintain its position as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, with the government’s first advance estimate projecting a growth rate of 7.3 per cent for the current fiscal year. This comes amid a slowing China and a eurozone narrowly avoiding a technical recession.
Kaushik Das, an economist at Deutsche Bank, highlighted India’s long-term growth potential, anticipating minimum real GDP growth of 6 per cent to 6.5 per cent and nominal GDP growth of 10 per cent to 11 per cent over the next two decades, surpassing comparable emerging market countries.
