Investors Lose Confidence in UK Fiscal Sustainability :: InvestMacro

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair declined to 1.3366 on Wednesday, reflecting intensified selling pressure on the pound. Sterling’s weakness stems from a sharp rise in UK government bond yields and broader global concerns regarding fiscal stability.

The yield on 30-year gilts climbed to 5.695%, marking its highest level in 25 years. This surge highlights mounting borrowing costs and raises the risk of a debt spiral. Higher yields increase debt-servicing expenses, potentially forcing the government to borrow additional funds and further pushing yields upward.

Amid a broader sell-off in debt markets, the pound has depreciated by over 1% within 24 hours, with losses continuing into mid-week. The situation evokes memories of the Liz Truss crisis, which severely eroded confidence in the UK’s fiscal management. Markets now question whether the government can effectively address the budget deficit and curb debt accumulation without implementing stringent reforms.

Pressure on the pound is mounting from two key directions: deteriorating investor confidence in UK fiscal sustainability and a global bond market rout driven by rising debt burdens across major economies.

In the coming weeks, the government’s response to mounting criticism and upcoming budget announcements will be critical for the sterling. These statements will indicate whether policymakers are prepared to adjust their fiscal course.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 chart:

GBP/USD completed a downward wave towards the 1.3340 USD level. A corrective wave towards the breached support level of 1.3420 USD – now likely to act as resistance – may follow. Once this correction concludes, the pair could resume its decline, with initial support expected at 1.3340 USD, followed by a further drop towards 1.3283 USD, where another corrective wave may form. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, where both the histogram and signal line remain below zero and continue trending downward.

H1 chart:

The pair tested the 1.3340 USD level and is forming a corrective wave. The pullback may target resistance at 1.3420 USD, where a rejection could trigger a resumption of the downtrend. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view: having failed to reach the 50.0 level, its signal lines are declining towards 20.0, indicating sustained bearish momentum.

Conclusion

Sterling faces intense pressure from both domestic fiscal concerns and global bond market dynamics. Technically, the pair remains in a downtrend, with any near-term corrections likely to be short-lived. The UK government’s upcoming fiscal announcements will be crucial in determining whether confidence can be restored or if further declines lie ahead.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.