The Export-Import Bank of India expects the country to clock 4.8% lower merchandise exports in the second quarter of 2023-24 as against the previous fiscal, pulled down by a slowdown in its major trading partners and global geopolitical uncertainty.
The Exim Bank has forecast India’s merchandise exports to amount to $105.4 billion in July-September FY24.
“India’s exports could be shadowed by continued slowdown in select major trade partners including advanced economies, continued uncertainty as a result of increasing geoeconomic fragmentation and high inflationary pressures leading to tighter global monetary and financial conditions,” the bank said in a statement Thursday.
India’s goods exports in April-August FY24 are $172.95 billion, compared to $196.33 billion a year ago. The country’s outbound shipments contracted for the seventh straight month in August though the extent of decline eased to 6.86% from double-digit contractions in the previous months, to hit a three-month high of $34.5 billion.
As per the Exim Bank statement, non-oil exports in the quarter are seen at $87.3 billion, 0.5% higher than the corresponding period last year.
India’s total merchandise exports have, however, consistently remained above $100 billion for eight consecutive quarters since the July-September quarter of 2021-22, reflecting resilience amidst a challenging global economic situation, plagued by supply chain disruptions and geo-political tensions, according to the Exim Bank .
With these forecasts, India’s exports for the first half of 2023-24 are expected to amount to $208 billion, while non-oil exports could amount to $172 billion during the same period.
“Surge in oil prices being currently witnessed, could also lead to increased exports for India in the forthcoming quarters,” it said.
Exporters have sought easy and low cost of credit to the MSMEs, long-pending demand for marketing support for promoting Brand India products and services globally and GST exemption on freight on exports to boost exports.
The Exim Bank will release the next growth forecast for India’s exports for the quarter ended December 31, 2023 in the first fortnight of December.
