Mumbai: Traders carried forward fewer bullish bets in Nifty futures to the April series on Thursday – the expiry day of the March contracts – amid uncertainty as to whether the index would extend its two-day winning run. The Nifty and Sensex notched up nearly 1% gains at closing on Thursday, but they came off the highs with market participants cutting wagers ahead of the prolonged weekend. Financial markets will be shut on Friday for Good Friday
Nifty ended 0.9%, or 203 points, higher to close at 22,326 after jumping as much as 1.8%. The Sensex, which closed 0.90%, or 655 points, higher to close at 73,651, rose up to 1.6% earlier in the day. Both indices came close to hitting record highs. For the fiscal 2023-24, the Nifty was up 28.61% at the close of trade on Thursday. India’s total market value surged by ₹133 lakh crore in FY24.
Analysts said traders will watch for the Nifty to close above 22,400 levels to determine whether further upsides are likely. “If Nifty had closed above 22,400 levels, it would have opened scope for further up-move to 22,700 levels but the selling before the close distorted the trend,” said Sriram Velayudhan, senior vice president at IIFL Securities. “In the short term, range bound movement is likely between 21,900 and 22,400 levels.”
Rollover in Nifty futures to the April series on Thursday stood at around 70% as against the three-month average of 81%, according to provisional data. Rollover, which involves carrying forward futures positions from one monthly series to the next before expiration, is considered an indication of trader activity and sentiment.
Some analysts expect the Nifty to hit new highs next week. “The Nifty broke above the resistance of 22,200, signalling a trend reversal which could potentially carry it to the 23,000 mark,” said Shilpa Rout, AVP – derivatives research at Prabhudas Lilladher.
Nifty hit an all-time high of 22,526.6 and the Sensex of 74245.2 on March 7.
The Nifty has strong support at 21,800 and could move towards 22,500 in the near term, said Abhilash Pagaria, head of alternative & quantitative research at Nuvama.
“An upward move in the market towards a new high cannot be ruled out,” said Pagaria. “However, the movement is likely to be range bound in April with an upward bias.”
Analysts said stock futures of auto, oil marketing companies, and banks have seen a rollover of bullish bets. Among stocks, Reliance Industries and TCS also witnessed a bullish rollover. Rollover in stock futures stood at 93% to the April series ass against the three-month average of 93%
Velayudhan said that except for the IT and pharma sectors, stock futures in most sectors witnessed the creation of long positions in April.
