The following is a guest editorial courtesy of Carolane de Palmas, Markets Analyst at Retail FX and CFDs broker ActivTrades.
After several weeks of steady declines, Brent crude appears to have found a short-term floor around $60 per barrel, its lowest level since May 2025. Over the past three sessions, prices have rebounded by nearly 7%, driven by renewed geopolitical tensions and shifting expectations around global supply.
The sharp recovery follows a fresh wave of U.S. sanctions targeting Russia’s top oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, a move that has reignited market concerns about potential supply disruptions. The pressure on Moscow is mounting as Europe’s newly adopted 19th sanctions package and Britain’s recent measures, which also targeted Rosneft and Lukoil, signal a rare moment of alignment among Western powers on energy restrictions.
This blend of technical rebound and escalating geopolitical risk has reintroduced volatility to the oil market and caught the attention of traders and investors alike. So, what should you know before taking advantage of this renewed volatility? Let’s take a closer look.
Technical Brent Outlook – 23/10/2025
Daily Brent Chart – Source: ActivTrader
From a technical perspective, Brent has shown strong short-term momentum after testing the $60 support level, which acted as a key pivot point for buyers. The recent surge has pushed prices above both the Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen lines on the Ichimoku indicator — a sign of short-term bullish recovery. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen sharply from near-oversold conditions (around 30) to a more neutral reading close to 50, reflecting improving buying pressure.
However, the broader trend remains cautiously neutral to bearish. Brent prices are still trading below the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting that a clear trend reversal has yet to be confirmed. The lagging span also faces several resistance zones before a sustained bullish breakout can take shape. A decisive move above $65–66 and the cloud could signal a return to a more stable upward trajectory, while a failure to hold above $60 might reopen the door to further downside.
Trump Hit Russia’s Two Biggest Oil Companies With Sanctions
The recent rebound in oil prices came shortly after a major geopolitical move from Washington. On October 23, President Donald Trump announced new sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two largest oil producers, which together represent over 5% of global oil output. The decision marks a striking shift in tone from Trump, who just a week earlier had spoken of maintaining open communication with President Vladimir Putin. The planned U.S.–Russia summit was abruptly canceled, with Trump stating it would not deliver the “results he wanted.”
According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the new measures aim to weaken Russia’s capacity to finance its ongoing war in Ukraine. “Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine,” Bessent said, urging U.S. allies to align with Washington’s sanctions strategy.
For Moscow, the announcement strikes at the core of its energy sector. Rosneft, which produces about 40% of Russia’s crude oil, and Lukoil, the country’s second-largest and most internationally exposed company, are key pillars of Russia’s energy revenues. However, analysts note that the immediate impact on the Russian state budget may be limited, since much of the government’s income comes from taxing production rather than exports. Oil and gas revenues—already down 21% year-on-year—still make up about a quarter of Russia’s budget, serving as the main financial lifeline for its war effort.
The Kremlin dismissed the sanctions as “unproductive,” with Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova insisting that Russia had developed “strong immunity” to Western restrictions. Nonetheless, the move underscores a new phase of U.S. policy against Russia.
U.S., U.K. and EU Step Up Coordinated Pressure on Russia
President Trump’s sanctions did not come in isolation—they follow a broader, coordinated tightening of Western pressure on Moscow. Just days before the U.S. announcement, Britain imposed new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, targeting the same two Russian oil giants. London also moved against 44 vessels of Russia’s “shadow fleet”, a network of tankers used to disguise the origin and movement of Russian crude. The British government described the measures as part of a renewed effort to cut off the Kremlin’s oil revenues, imposing asset freezes, director bans, transport restrictions, and prohibitions on U.K. trust services.
In parallel, on October 23, the European Union approved its 19th package of sanctions against Russia—its toughest yet. The European Commission hailed the move as a decisive step to intensify pressure on Russia’s war economy, expanding restrictions across key sectors such as energy, finance, and defense.
The new EU measures include a total ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports—effective from January 2027 for long-term contracts, and within six months for shorter-term deals. They also introduce a full transaction ban on Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, two major pillars of Russia’s energy exports. Additionally, the EU took the unprecedented step of sanctioning third-country companies, including two Chinese refineries and an oil trader, accused of facilitating Russia’s crude sales and helping sustain its war revenues.
Together, these measures represent the most coordinated Western effort since the early stages of the Ukraine conflict. The alignment of U.S., British, and EU sanctions signals a renewed determination to restrict Moscow’s access to global energy markets and financing channels. For global oil traders, this convergence of policy raises the risk of further supply disruptions, helping explain the recent rebound in Brent prices.
Why India and China’s Next Moves Could Redefine Global Oil Prices
The reaction of India and China — Russia’s two largest oil customers — is key for the future of global oil prices. Following Washington’s sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, both countries appear to be reassessing their energy ties with Moscow, a shift that could dramatically reshape global supply dynamics.
In India, refiners are reportedly preparing to sharply reduce imports of Russian crude to stay compliant with U.S. sanctions. This marks a significant shift for the world’s third-largest oil consumer, which has relied heavily on discounted Russian oil in the last few years. Russia supplied about 36% of India’s oil imports in the first half of 2025 (Kpler), making it New Delhi’s top source of crude. The country imports around 80% of its total oil needs, and domestic production cannot meet its fast-growing demand
However, India’s decision isn’t purely political. The move is also tied to economic negotiations with Washington. The U.S. recently imposed 50% tariffs on Indian exports, half of which were justified as retaliation for continued purchases of Russian oil. A potential trade deal could lower those tariffs if India winds down its energy ties with Moscow. Yet cutting Russian crude would pose serious challenges: after previous U.S. pressure forced India to halt imports from Iran and Venezuela, affordable alternatives are limited.
India also plays a unique role as a global refining hub. Much of the Russian crude it buys is processed locally and re-exported as refined fuels to Western markets. This has created a paradox: Western countries, while sanctioning Russian oil, have continued to import fuel made from it via Indian refineries. The new U.S. sanctions, with a grace period until November 21 for companies to wind down Russian oil dealings, could disrupt this complex trade flow and reshape global refining dynamics.
Meanwhile, China, Russia’s largest energy partner, is showing similar caution. Major state-owned refiners have suspended purchases of seaborne Russian oil, although imports by smaller independent refiners — the so-called “teapots” — continue. China currently buys about 1.4 million barrels per day by sea, plus another 900,000 barrels per day via pipelines. While pipeline flows to PetroChina are expected to continue largely unaffected, the temporary suspension of maritime imports by state firms signals a clear intent to avoid entanglement with U.S. sanctions.
If both India and China substantially scale back their Russian crude purchases, Moscow could lose access to two of its most important customers, putting severe pressure on its revenues. At the same time, the sudden shift in demand would likely push up prices for non-sanctioned oil from the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, tightening global supply and driving prices higher.
Sources: Wall Street Journal, Reuters, CNN Business, European Commission, US Department of the Treasury
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Forecasts are not guarantees. Rates may change. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions may vary. Platforms’ tools do not guarantee success.
