Oil waits for fundamental spark :: InvestMacro

• Brent bulls and bears in tug of war
• Prices trapped in range on D1 charts
• Incoming EIA data could trigger volatility
• Technical indicators favour bears
• Key levels of interest at $79 and $75.50

It has been a choppy affair for oil prices thanks to a combination of fundamental forces.

Earlier in the week, oil bears were in power after Riyadh lowered its official selling prices for oil exports over the weekend. Only for bulls to return amid Middle East supply concerns, a Libyan supply outage, more attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and an industry report showing a bigger-than-expected drawdown in crude inventories.

Prices are currently trapped within a range on the daily charts with support at $75.50 and resistance at $79.00.

The global commodity could be injected with fresh volatility later today due to the incoming Energy Information Agency (EIA) report. A build or drawdown in crude inventories has the potential to trigger a breakout/down opportunity in oil prices.

Looking at the technical picture, the indicators favour more downside with prices respecting a bearish channel.

Zooming out to the weekly charts, we see a similar bearish picture. However, strong support can be found at the 200-week SMA.

Taking a quick look at the monthly charts, prices are approaching a significant support at $71.50. A solid monthly close below this level could signal further downside.

Redirecting our attention back to the daily timeframe, bears need to secure a solid daily close below $75.50 to regain control.

• Sustained weakness below $75.50 could encourage a decline back towards $72.50.

• Should $75.50 prove to be reliable support, that may push prices back towards $79.00 and $80.70.