Speculator Bets go lower led by Copper & Gold :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the declines for the metals was Copper (-21,784 contracts) with Gold (-19,035 contracts), Silver (-6,208 contracts), Platinum (-5,498 contracts), Steel (-2,444 contracts) and Palladium (-1,317 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Major Metals – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Steel & Platinum

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (91 percent) and Platinum (70 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (14 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Copper (20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (70.0 percent)
Silver (58.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (67.4 percent)
Copper (20.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (39.9 percent)
Platinum (69.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (82.6 percent)
Palladium (13.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (22.9 percent)
Steel (90.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (100.0 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (31 percent) and Palladium (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Silver (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-8 percent) and Steel (-5 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-5.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (16.2 percent)
Silver (-11.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (7.6 percent)
Copper (-8.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (10.9 percent)
Platinum (31.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.6 percent)
Palladium (4.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.6 percent)
Steel (-4.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.2 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 188,614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 207,649 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	21.7	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	66.2	4.4
– Net Position:	188,614	-217,701	29,087
– Gross Longs:	271,665	106,489	50,574
– Gross Shorts:	83,051	324,190	21,487
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	36.5	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	0.4	31.7

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 26,362 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	29.2	22.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	62.3	9.1
– Net Position:	26,362	-43,755	17,393
– Gross Longs:	52,886	38,495	29,378
– Gross Shorts:	26,524	82,250	11,985
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.2	38.5	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	5.2	21.4

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	37.6	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	33.2	5.9
– Net Position:	-13,167	9,029	4,138
– Gross Longs:	64,262	77,708	16,397
– Gross Shorts:	77,429	68,679	12,259
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.3	79.1	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	3.4	32.7

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.6	20.3	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	59.8	4.2
– Net Position:	23,541	-28,380	4,839
– Gross Longs:	47,209	14,631	7,883
– Gross Shorts:	23,668	43,011	3,044
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.9	34.8	32.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.2	-29.2	8.0

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	63.3	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.9	11.3	9.4
– Net Position:	-9,472	9,404	68
– Gross Longs:	3,551	11,457	1,766
– Gross Shorts:	13,023	2,053	1,698
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	5.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.9	86.6	45.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-6.2	14.7

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 967 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	75.3	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	69.1	0.9
– Net Position:	-1,477	1,241	236
– Gross Longs:	4,078	15,118	426
– Gross Shorts:	5,555	13,877	190
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.7	9.4	58.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	4.8	-3.0

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.