By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & Treasury Bonds
The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (51,208 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (47,265 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (35,604 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (22,843 contracts) and the SOFR 3-Months (7,373 contracts) also showing higher weeks.
The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 1-Month (-14,444 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-14,211 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-3,725 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-219 contracts)also registering lower bets on the week.
Bonds prices slightly up
The bond market prices on the week saw the longer U.S. Treasury bonds trending higher with gains of over 1%.
The 10-year Notes were higher by almost half a percent, while the 5-year, the 2-year, the Fed funds, and the 3-month overnight financing rate bonds were slightly higher on the week.
The 1-month secured overnight financing rate was the only bond with a weekly fall.
Bonds Data:
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (84 percent) and the Fed Funds (65 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (55 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (2 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (4 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (64.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (64.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (17.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (43.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (40.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (3.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (54.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (38.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (84.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (85.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (28.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (31.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (35.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (35.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (34 percent) and the Fed Funds (30 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.
The SOFR 1-Month (-22 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-11 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-5 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (29.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (36.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-4.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-11.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-5.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-2.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-6.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-1.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-1.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-9.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-10.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-21.9 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-31.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (33.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (22.9 percent)
30-Day Federal Funds Futures:
The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 54,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,744 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.4 | 60.5 | 2.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.9 | 64.1 | 1.9 |
| – Net Position: | 54,525 | -77,029 | 22,504 |
| – Gross Longs: | 440,499 | 1,303,752 | 62,363 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 385,974 | 1,380,781 | 39,859 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 64.7 | 28.0 | 91.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 29.7 | -31.0 | 12.3 |
Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -479,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -487,148 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SOFR 3-Months Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 12.7 | 59.3 | 0.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.8 | 55.0 | 0.6 |
| – Net Position: | -479,775 | 495,967 | -16,192 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,471,092 | 6,885,623 | 57,425 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,950,867 | 6,389,656 | 73,617 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 35.5 | 65.2 | 70.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 33.7 | -32.2 | -14.6 |
Individual Bond Markets:
Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -163,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,007 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SOFR 1-Month Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 12.6 | 68.5 | 0.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.7 | 57.7 | 0.1 |
| – Net Position: | -163,451 | 159,069 | 4,382 |
| – Gross Longs: | 185,699 | 1,011,197 | 6,250 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 349,150 | 852,128 | 1,868 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 3.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 28.2 | 70.6 | 75.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -21.9 | 19.8 | 17.2 |
2-Year Treasury Note Futures:
The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,248,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 51,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,299,860 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.3 | 77.2 | 5.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 42.8 | 51.7 | 2.8 |
| – Net Position: | -1,248,652 | 1,115,887 | 132,765 |
| – Gross Longs: | 627,208 | 3,380,466 | 253,553 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,875,860 | 2,264,579 | 120,788 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 17.1 | 81.0 | 71.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.9 | 5.7 | 0.8 |
5-Year Treasury Note Futures:
The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,469,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 35,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,505,528 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.0 | 83.9 | 6.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 42.4 | 51.1 | 3.8 |
| – Net Position: | -2,469,924 | 2,290,033 | 179,891 |
| – Gross Longs: | 488,633 | 5,860,765 | 447,110 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 2,958,557 | 3,570,732 | 267,219 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 2.1 | 97.1 | 82.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.0 | -0.7 | 3.0 |
10-Year Treasury Note Futures:
The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -749,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 22,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -772,377 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 11.8 | 77.3 | 8.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.3 | 63.6 | 7.0 |
| – Net Position: | -749,534 | 660,277 | 89,257 |
| – Gross Longs: | 567,973 | 3,730,048 | 428,586 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,317,507 | 3,069,771 | 339,329 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 43.1 | 53.6 | 69.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.8 | 2.0 | 3.6 |
Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:
The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -393,327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,211 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -379,116 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.4 | 79.5 | 9.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.7 | 60.3 | 12.2 |
| – Net Position: | -393,327 | 463,537 | -70,210 |
| – Gross Longs: | 251,816 | 1,920,013 | 223,556 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 645,143 | 1,456,476 | 293,766 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 3.7 | 98.3 | 48.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.0 | 12.6 | -19.5 |
US Treasury Bonds Futures:
The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -82,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 47,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,144 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| US Treasury Bonds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 9.0 | 76.3 | 13.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.6 | 76.7 | 8.1 |
| – Net Position: | -82,879 | -6,243 | 89,122 |
| – Gross Longs: | 160,579 | 1,368,819 | 234,183 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 243,458 | 1,375,062 | 145,061 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 54.5 | 37.1 | 72.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.1 | 0.9 | -0.1 |
Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:
The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -232,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,725 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -228,618 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.5 | 81.5 | 9.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.4 | 69.6 | 9.4 |
| – Net Position: | -232,343 | 233,192 | -849 |
| – Gross Longs: | 146,260 | 1,589,126 | 183,117 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 378,603 | 1,355,934 | 183,966 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 84.0 | 31.5 | 14.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -10.7 | 7.6 | 8.9 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
- COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 2-Year Bonds & Treasury Bonds Jul 27, 2025
- COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybeans, Soybean Oil & Wheat Jul 27, 2025
- Strong Alphabet report pushes indices to new highs; US-Canada tariff talks stall Jul 25, 2025
- Oil prices have been declining for four consecutive days. Natural gas prices have fallen to a two-month low Jul 24, 2025
- Pound Strengthens: Trade Tariffs and Economic Data Boost GBP/USD Jul 24, 2025
- European indices under pressure amid tariff concerns. Japan and the Philippines signed a tariff deal with the US Jul 23, 2025
- USD/JPY Falls as Japan and US Reach Trade Agreement Jul 23, 2025
- Stock indices are once again hitting all-time highs. Natural gas prices fell by more than 6% Jul 22, 2025
- EUR/USD Rises as Investors Remain Cautious Amid Mounting Risks Jul 22, 2025
- Precious Metals Miner Maintains Strong Gold-Silver Gains Jul 21, 2025
