Speculator Bets led by Copper, Silver & Steel :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper, Silver & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (5,475 contracts) with Silver (4,744 contracts), Steel (4,618 contracts) and Palladium (943 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The two markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-15,830 contracts) and with Platinum (-2,193 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

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Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (90 percent) and Silver (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (82 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (61 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is over the 50-percent or the midpoint level for the past 3-years.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (82.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (88.3 percent)
Silver (85.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (79.0 percent)
Copper (52.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (47.6 percent)
Platinum (71.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (76.8 percent)
Palladium (60.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (53.8 percent)
Steel (89.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (68.7 percent)

 

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Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (26 percent) and Steel (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

There were no markets this week with negative trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (5.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.1 percent)
Silver (17.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (14.9 percent)
Copper (18.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.7 percent)
Platinum (13.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (47.5 percent)
Palladium (25.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.4 percent)
Steel (24.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (12.8 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 268,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 284,504 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.0	13.9	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	70.5	4.5
– Net Position:	268,674	-296,071	27,397
– Gross Longs:	334,043	72,393	50,882
– Gross Shorts:	65,369	368,464	23,485
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	15.7	69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-6.3	13.2

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 54,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.9	20.7	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	63.0	8.0
– Net Position:	54,454	-71,960	17,506
– Gross Longs:	84,814	35,237	31,187
– Gross Shorts:	30,360	107,197	13,681
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.0	14.8	55.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-17.5	11.1

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.6	30.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	41.0	5.7
– Net Position:	20,896	-24,842	3,946
– Gross Longs:	104,032	75,169	17,858
– Gross Shorts:	83,136	100,011	13,912
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	49.0	41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-16.3	-7.2

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 23,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.6	16.1	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	47.4	5.9
– Net Position:	23,537	-27,658	4,121
– Gross Longs:	58,829	14,208	9,361
– Gross Shorts:	35,292	41,866	5,240
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.6	30.9	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-12.4	-2.4

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,631 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.6	39.0	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.3	16.1	6.7
– Net Position:	-5,631	4,658	973
– Gross Longs:	7,021	7,922	2,330
– Gross Shorts:	12,652	3,264	1,357
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	37.2	80.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.5	-24.5	-1.9

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	58.7	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	68.3	0.5
– Net Position:	2,855	-3,034	179
– Gross Longs:	9,630	18,379	348
– Gross Shorts:	6,775	21,413	169
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.8	10.5	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.8	-25.7	19.9

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.