Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (42,723 contracts) with Soybeans (17,794 contracts), Wheat (11,439 contracts), Soybean Meal (9,883 contracts), Soybean Oil (3,436 contracts), Live Cattle (2,720 contracts), Cocoa (295 contracts) and Lean Hogs (261 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-9,399 contracts), Cotton (-7,957 contracts) and with Coffee (-474 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Coffee & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (88 percent) and Wheat (58 percent) lead the softs markets this week and are the best markets over the 3-year range currently.

On the downside, Cotton (0 percent), Soybeans (13 percent) and Live Cattle (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (27.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (22.4 percent)
Sugar (23.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (27.1 percent)
Coffee (87.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (88.2 percent)
Soybeans (12.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (38.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (43.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (39.3 percent)
Live Cattle (14.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (11.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (26.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (25.9 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (4.8 percent)
Cocoa (42.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (42.5 percent)
Wheat (58.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (50.1 percent)

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Corn & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (21 percent) and Wheat (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (18 percent), Lean Hogs (13 percent) and Sugar (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers with the strongest trends.

Live Cattle (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-5 percent) and Cocoa (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (21.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (16.7 percent)
Sugar (9.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (13.2 percent)
Coffee (0.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-2.5 percent)
Soybeans (5.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-5.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (17.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-0.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-29.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-17.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (16.5 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-2.3 percent)
Cocoa (-0.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.4 percent)
Wheat (19.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.0 percent)

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Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -47,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 42,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	44.3	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	37.5	12.7
– Net Position:	-47,760	92,844	-45,084
– Gross Longs:	339,497	602,238	127,801
– Gross Shorts:	387,257	509,394	172,885
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	74.8	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.0	-17.6	-42.4

 

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SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 63,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,802 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.5	55.2	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	63.1	7.9
– Net Position:	63,403	-65,218	1,815
– Gross Longs:	176,409	452,228	66,810
– Gross Shorts:	113,006	517,446	64,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	77.7	21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-8.8	4.9

 

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COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 63,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,921 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	38.3	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	72.3	2.6
– Net Position:	63,447	-66,209	2,762
– Gross Longs:	79,106	74,522	7,745
– Gross Shorts:	15,659	140,731	4,983
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.7	12.2	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-1.3	14.4

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -144,231 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 17,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -162,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.8	64.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	43.6	7.7
– Net Position:	-144,231	168,163	-23,932
– Gross Longs:	105,764	527,198	39,866
– Gross Shorts:	249,995	359,035	63,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.5	90.3	50.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-2.7	-33.6

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	51.4	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	50.8	5.2
– Net Position:	-4,869	3,522	1,347
– Gross Longs:	137,649	277,927	29,271
– Gross Shorts:	142,518	274,405	27,924
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	64.7	19.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-14.1	-13.5

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 38,898 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	47.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	59.0	5.4
– Net Position:	38,898	-57,666	18,768
– Gross Longs:	119,265	242,125	46,003
– Gross Shorts:	80,367	299,791	27,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	54.9	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-1.9	16.5

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 33,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,329 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	36.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	43.1	13.3
– Net Position:	33,049	-21,140	-11,909
– Gross Longs:	96,103	106,570	27,356
– Gross Shorts:	63,054	127,710	39,265
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.6	96.6	26.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.0	29.7	13.7

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.7	38.4	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.7	33.3	9.2
– Net Position:	-7,481	12,577	-5,096
– Gross Longs:	92,490	94,222	17,542
– Gross Shorts:	99,971	81,645	22,638
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.1	76.1	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-15.1	-3.9

 

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COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -46,111 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,957 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	51.8	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	30.7	6.8
– Net Position:	-46,111	48,810	-2,699
– Gross Longs:	52,919	119,956	13,031
– Gross Shorts:	99,030	71,146	15,730
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	5.1	-3.4

 

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COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,930 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	33.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	61.5	3.4
– Net Position:	32,225	-38,269	6,044
– Gross Longs:	49,602	46,984	10,736
– Gross Shorts:	17,377	85,253	4,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	53.7	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	1.0	-2.9

 

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WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	36.1	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.7	29.3	9.9
– Net Position:	-16,303	24,280	-7,977
– Gross Longs:	126,513	129,884	27,534
– Gross Shorts:	142,816	105,604	35,511
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.3	43.5	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-18.5	-13.7

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.