Speculator bets led by DowJones & Russell 2000 :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones & Russell 2000

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the DowJones-Mini (3,466 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (2,289 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (1,633 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were S&P500-Mini (-52,828 contracts), the VIX (-16,446 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,851 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-1,616 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

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Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (74 percent) and the VIX (73 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (63 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (46 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (73.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (90.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (63.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (71.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (74.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (68.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (46.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (43.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (58.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (56.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (51.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (51.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (54.9 percent)

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S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (24 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (18 percent) and the VIX (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-18 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-12 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (5.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (24.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (23.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (35.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-18.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-28.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (17.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-13.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-11.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-19.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (-7.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-3.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-6.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-3.6 percent)

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Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	42.5	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.0	32.2	8.1
– Net Position:	-38,879	41,509	-2,630
– Gross Longs:	98,258	171,486	30,089
– Gross Shorts:	137,137	129,977	32,719
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.0	25.1	83.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-2.4	-14.3

 

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S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,695 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -52,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	70.7	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	75.4	8.6
– Net Position:	-9,695	-95,129	104,824
– Gross Longs:	262,778	1,436,696	280,192
– Gross Shorts:	272,473	1,531,825	175,368
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.3	26.8	78.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.8	-23.4	4.0

 

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Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 8,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	61.5	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	73.2	12.5
– Net Position:	8,664	-10,847	2,183
– Gross Longs:	19,305	57,061	13,773
– Gross Shorts:	10,641	67,908	11,590
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.4	22.5	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	19.4	-10.0

 

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Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,405 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,772 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	52.8	17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	57.4	14.7
– Net Position:	4,405	-10,633	6,228
– Gross Longs:	65,234	124,251	40,762
– Gross Shorts:	60,829	134,884	34,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.0	40.8	85.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-10.5	-4.8

 

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Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	76.0	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	69.2	4.9
– Net Position:	-38,000	31,638	6,362
– Gross Longs:	72,277	353,891	29,050
– Gross Shorts:	110,277	322,253	22,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.1	40.8	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	12.8	-12.0

 

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Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	66.6	24.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	56.5	13.1
– Net Position:	-3,407	1,621	1,786
– Gross Longs:	1,465	10,675	3,885
– Gross Shorts:	4,872	9,054	2,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.1	40.9	66.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	10.3	-12.0

 

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MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,145 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	90.5	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	88.5	1.6
– Net Position:	-13,996	7,912	6,084
– Gross Longs:	24,945	373,543	12,596
– Gross Shorts:	38,941	365,631	6,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	45.2	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	5.5	3.4

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.