Speculator Bets led by Gold & Platinum :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (28,515 contracts) with Platinum (1,648 contracts) and Palladium (1,020 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-3,801 contracts), Silver (-3,792 contracts) and with Steel (-23 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

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Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (92 percent) and Silver (79 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (74 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (12 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Copper (48 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (92.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (80.1 percent)
Silver (78.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (83.8 percent)
Copper (48.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (51.5 percent)
Platinum (49.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (45.5 percent)
Palladium (12.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (4.9 percent)
Steel (73.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (73.8 percent)

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Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (11 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data this week.

Platinum (-32 percent) and Copper (-31 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-14 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (11.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (-3.2 percent)
Silver (-14.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.3 percent)
Copper (-31.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (-28.4 percent)
Platinum (-32.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-27.5 percent)
Palladium (-11.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-2.5 percent)
Steel (-0.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (0.2 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 267,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 28,515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 238,749 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.0	17.5	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	75.3	5.0
– Net Position:	267,264	-292,502	25,238
– Gross Longs:	328,769	88,313	50,388
– Gross Shorts:	61,505	380,815	25,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.3 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.4	6.8	62.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.0	-11.2	7.1

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 45,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,081 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.6	25.8	21.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	70.9	7.1
– Net Position:	45,289	-66,776	21,487
– Gross Longs:	61,458	38,079	31,934
– Gross Shorts:	16,169	104,855	10,447
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.6	20.1	74.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.3	14.7	-12.8

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 15,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	31.7	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	42.3	5.3
– Net Position:	15,797	-24,403	8,606
– Gross Longs:	86,013	72,860	20,861
– Gross Shorts:	70,216	97,263	12,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	49.4	69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.1	32.5	-26.0

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 11,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.7	23.0	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	45.8	4.1
– Net Position:	11,939	-18,610	6,671
– Gross Longs:	46,287	18,769	10,015
– Gross Shorts:	34,348	37,379	3,344
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.9	42.0	76.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.1	30.4	11.0

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,020 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,244 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	48.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.9	8.1	5.7
– Net Position:	-12,224	11,676	548
– Gross Longs:	8,843	14,059	2,216
– Gross Shorts:	21,067	2,383	1,668
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	5.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	87.3	59.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	7.5	23.2

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,921 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	79.5	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	51.6	1.2
– Net Position:	-5,921	5,987	-66
– Gross Longs:	2,123	17,057	181
– Gross Shorts:	8,044	11,070	247
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.7	27.4	25.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	0.4	6.1

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.