By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Cotton
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (14,917 contracts) with Cotton (11,158 contracts), Live Cattle (8,286 contracts), Soybeans (1,463 contracts) and Soybean Meal (14 contracts) also in the plus column for the week.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-20,128 contracts) with Wheat (-15,632 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,325 contracts), Coffee (-4,221 contracts), Cocoa (-1,225 contracts) and Sugar (-465 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.
Softs Net Speculators Leaderboard
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (85 percent) and Cotton (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Cocoa (59 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Soybean Meal (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent) and Soybean Oil (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (2.5 percent)
Sugar (23.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.9 percent)
Coffee (84.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (89.0 percent)
Soybeans (0.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (8.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.0 percent)
Live Cattle (45.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (36.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (43.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (31.0 percent)
Cotton (80.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (71.9 percent)
Cocoa (59.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (60.3 percent)
Wheat (36.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (47.4 percent)
Cotton & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (67 percent) and Live Cattle (42 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (34 percent), Coffee (11 percent) and Sugar (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Soybeans (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-21 percent), Soybean Meal (-19 percent) and Corn (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-11.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (-12.3 percent)
Sugar (8.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (6.3 percent)
Coffee (10.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.1 percent)
Soybeans (-29.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-33.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (-2.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (4.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-19.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-32.5 percent)
Live Cattle (41.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (24.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (33.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.7 percent)
Cotton (67.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (58.9 percent)
Cocoa (-21.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-20.0 percent)
Wheat (-7.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (3.2 percent)
Individual Soft Commodities Markets:
CORN Futures:
The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -266,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -20,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -245,939 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.6 | 46.1 | 10.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 34.3 | 28.5 | 11.2 |
| – Net Position: | -266,067 | 282,468 | -16,401 |
| – Gross Longs: | 282,549 | 738,256 | 162,300 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 548,616 | 455,788 | 178,701 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 97.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -11.5 | 11.3 | 6.9 |
SUGAR Futures:
The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 91,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,155 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.7 | 54.3 | 8.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 10.9 | 65.8 | 7.7 |
| – Net Position: | 91,690 | -97,693 | 6,003 |
| – Gross Longs: | 184,174 | 461,062 | 71,375 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 92,484 | 558,755 | 65,372 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.0 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 23.8 | 79.5 | 10.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.2 | -4.9 | -9.1 |
COFFEE Futures:
The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 55,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,084 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 38.2 | 36.2 | 3.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.1 | 63.6 | 3.2 |
| – Net Position: | 55,863 | -56,600 | 737 |
| – Gross Longs: | 78,875 | 74,712 | 7,412 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 23,012 | 131,312 | 6,675 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.4 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 84.7 | 19.6 | 23.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.5 | -8.8 | -18.5 |
SOYBEANS Futures:
The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -160,288 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -161,751 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 12.5 | 59.2 | 6.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 32.5 | 37.8 | 7.9 |
| – Net Position: | -160,288 | 171,748 | -11,460 |
| – Gross Longs: | 100,976 | 476,364 | 52,352 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 261,264 | 304,616 | 63,812 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.4 | 100.0 | 77.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -29.6 | 28.1 | 10.0 |
SOYBEAN OIL Futures:
The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -33,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,616 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.4 | 48.8 | 5.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 25.5 | 43.0 | 4.8 |
| – Net Position: | -33,941 | 32,527 | 1,414 |
| – Gross Longs: | 107,910 | 271,182 | 27,829 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 141,851 | 238,655 | 26,415 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 2.5 | 98.8 | 18.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.9 | 2.7 | -0.5 |
SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:
The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -45,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,467 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.4 | 49.4 | 9.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.5 | 43.6 | 6.3 |
| – Net Position: | -45,453 | 29,150 | 16,303 |
| – Gross Longs: | 87,267 | 247,497 | 47,872 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 132,720 | 218,347 | 31,569 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 29.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -19.3 | 17.7 | 13.4 |
LIVE CATTLE Futures:
The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 61,880 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,594 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 36.6 | 36.7 | 10.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.3 | 56.3 | 12.3 |
| – Net Position: | 61,880 | -57,126 | -4,754 |
| – Gross Longs: | 106,475 | 106,523 | 30,961 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 44,595 | 163,649 | 35,715 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.4 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 45.7 | 52.9 | 64.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 41.5 | -41.3 | -24.8 |
LEAN HOGS Futures:
The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 14,917 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,579 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 36.7 | 36.2 | 8.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 29.4 | 41.3 | 10.6 |
| – Net Position: | 16,496 | -11,597 | -4,899 |
| – Gross Longs: | 82,762 | 81,580 | 18,963 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 66,266 | 93,177 | 23,862 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 43.2 | 59.4 | 61.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 33.7 | -36.3 | 1.1 |
COTTON Futures:
The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 95,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,935 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 44.6 | 33.4 | 6.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 8.7 | 72.4 | 3.1 |
| – Net Position: | 95,093 | -103,497 | 8,404 |
| – Gross Longs: | 118,288 | 88,447 | 16,722 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 23,195 | 191,944 | 8,318 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 5.1 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 80.3 | 20.2 | 67.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 67.1 | -66.4 | 53.6 |
COCOA Futures:
The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,225 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,351 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 35.9 | 30.5 | 6.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.6 | 51.5 | 4.6 |
| – Net Position: | 48,126 | -52,597 | 4,471 |
| – Gross Longs: | 89,680 | 76,177 | 15,889 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 41,554 | 128,774 | 11,418 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.2 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 59.1 | 39.2 | 50.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -21.2 | 14.9 | 50.3 |
WHEAT Futures:
The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -44,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,007 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 31.3 | 36.8 | 7.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 42.6 | 24.3 | 9.2 |
| – Net Position: | -44,639 | 49,606 | -4,967 |
| – Gross Longs: | 124,169 | 145,807 | 31,337 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 168,808 | 96,201 | 36,304 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 36.5 | 63.6 | 44.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.8 | 5.3 | 17.7 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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