Speculator bets led by Nasdaq-Mini :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini with a gain of 10,232 contracts on the week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-29,716 contracts), the VIX (-13,822 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-8,962 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-1,462 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-1,552 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (85 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (77 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (74 percent) and the VIX (66 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (35 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (49 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (66.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (78.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (48.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (53.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (77.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (79.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (85.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (69.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (74.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (80.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (35.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.8 percent)

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Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (42 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The  MSCI EAFE-Mini (4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-21 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-33.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (-17.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-19.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-16.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-1.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (41.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (28.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-20.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-19.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (3.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (1.4 percent)

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Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -33,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,822 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,380 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	44.3	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	35.1	8.5
– Net Position:	-33,202	31,526	1,676
– Gross Longs:	66,912	152,286	30,871
– Gross Shorts:	100,114	120,760	29,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	34.8	84.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.7	34.8	-15.1

 

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S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -108,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,894 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	72.2	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	74.0	6.5
– Net Position:	-108,610	-40,012	148,622
– Gross Longs:	257,606	1,646,683	295,702
– Gross Shorts:	366,216	1,686,695	147,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	34.4	98.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	10.8	21.6

 

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Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,052 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	52.1	17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	66.8	13.8
– Net Position:	10,500	-13,613	3,113
– Gross Longs:	26,196	48,062	15,863
– Gross Shorts:	15,696	61,675	12,750
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.4	18.5	78.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	1.1	6.2

 

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Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 29,691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	54.8	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	68.7	9.7
– Net Position:	29,691	-40,965	11,274
– Gross Longs:	89,355	160,837	39,675
– Gross Shorts:	59,664	201,802	28,401
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.2	7.6	76.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.9	-30.5	1.5

 

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Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	75.5	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	78.5	3.4
– Net Position:	-11,574	-15,176	26,750
– Gross Longs:	65,152	379,981	43,620
– Gross Shorts:	76,726	395,157	16,870
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.1	14.6	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.8	11.2	34.4

 

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Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.0	70.2	27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	55.7	19.5
– Net Position:	-2,464	1,576	888
– Gross Longs:	221	7,620	3,008
– Gross Shorts:	2,685	6,044	2,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	37.5	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	4.8	1.0

 

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MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	89.2	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	83.4	1.3
– Net Position:	-31,200	26,345	4,855
– Gross Longs:	37,113	406,070	10,977
– Gross Shorts:	68,313	379,725	6,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	63.5	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-3.3	-1.6

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.