Speculator bets led by Platinum, Copper & Steel :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum, Copper & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (6,755 contracts) with Copper (5,475 contracts) and Steel (4,618 contracts) also showing higher weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-18,004 contracts), Silver (-651 contracts) and with Palladium (-450 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

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Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (100 percent) and Gold (88 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (79.0 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Copper (53 percent) and Palladium (54 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently but are above their 3-year midpoint (50 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (88.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (95.1 percent)
Silver (79.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (79.8 percent)
Copper (52.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (47.6 percent)
Platinum (76.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.8 percent)
Palladium (53.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.1 percent)
Steel (100.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (81.7 percent)

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Platinum & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (47 percent) and Steel (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Palladium (15 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

There are no downside trend scores this week.

Move Statistics:
Gold (14.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (20.8 percent)
Silver (14.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (12.9 percent)
Copper (18.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.7 percent)
Platinum (47.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (7.9 percent)
Palladium (15.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.4 percent)
Steel (21.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (11.1 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 284,504 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 302,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.0	13.7	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	72.3	4.6
– Net Position:	284,504	-309,888	25,384
– Gross Longs:	343,766	72,622	49,509
– Gross Shorts:	59,262	382,510	24,125
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.3	10.7	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.1	-13.9	4.9

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 49,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,361 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.2	19.8	20.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	61.3	8.7
– Net Position:	49,710	-68,250	18,540
– Gross Longs:	79,112	32,501	32,807
– Gross Shorts:	29,402	100,751	14,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.0	18.9	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.9	-17.5	19.5

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.6	30.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	41.0	5.7
– Net Position:	20,896	-24,842	3,946
– Gross Longs:	104,032	75,169	17,858
– Gross Shorts:	83,136	100,011	13,912
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	49.0	41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-16.3	-7.2

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,755 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,975 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.1	16.3	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.0	50.9	6.8
– Net Position:	25,730	-28,593	2,863
– Gross Longs:	54,600	13,437	8,495
– Gross Shorts:	28,870	42,030	5,632
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.8	28.8	7.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	47.5	-32.9	-84.4

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.9	40.6	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.6	12.5	7.0
– Net Position:	-6,574	5,643	931
– Gross Longs:	7,014	8,163	2,340
– Gross Shorts:	13,588	2,520	1,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	3.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.8	44.2	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-15.7	4.8

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	58.7	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	68.3	0.5
– Net Position:	2,855	-3,034	179
– Gross Longs:	9,630	18,379	348
– Gross Shorts:	6,775	21,413	169
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.5	-22.2	19.9

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.