Speculator bets led by Platinum & Silver :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (4,739 contracts) with Silver (4,077 contracts), Gold (3,145 contracts) and Palladium (650 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-2,495 contracts) with Steel (-201 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Silver & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (95 percent) and Gold (87 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (80 percent), Steel (74 percent) and Platinum (73 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (87.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (85.9 percent)
Silver (94.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (89.3 percent)
Copper (79.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (82.2 percent)
Platinum (73.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.4 percent)
Palladium (6.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (2.2 percent)
Steel (73.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (74.4 percent)

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Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (19 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is currently the only market with a positive trend score.

Palladium (-12 percent), Copper (-11 percent) and Platinum (-10 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (18.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (19.6 percent)
Silver (-4.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (-2.4 percent)
Copper (-10.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-9.3 percent)
Platinum (-10.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (5.9 percent)
Palladium (-12.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-15.1 percent)
Steel (-6.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-9.0 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 246,229 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 243,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.0	19.1	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	79.2	5.1
– Net Position:	246,229	-271,488	25,259
– Gross Longs:	284,885	86,551	48,436
– Gross Shorts:	38,656	358,039	23,177
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.3	14.5	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-16.1	-8.5

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 55,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,901 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.9	23.7	21.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	72.1	6.6
– Net Position:	55,978	-80,718	24,740
– Gross Longs:	81,366	39,375	35,689
– Gross Shorts:	25,388	120,093	10,949
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.9	2.7	90.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	0.8	13.5

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 50,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,495 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.7	24.1	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	48.5	4.4
– Net Position:	50,126	-62,465	12,339
– Gross Longs:	134,798	61,575	23,624
– Gross Shorts:	84,672	124,040	11,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.9	16.6	92.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	6.2	27.0

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,603 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.2	23.1	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	58.7	4.0
– Net Position:	20,603	-27,352	6,749
– Gross Longs:	43,196	17,723	9,788
– Gross Shorts:	22,593	45,075	3,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.0	18.7	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	2.2	50.6

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,906 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,556 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	53.9	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.3	9.0	5.1
– Net Position:	-12,906	12,138	768
– Gross Longs:	8,224	14,558	2,158
– Gross Shorts:	21,130	2,420	1,390
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	6.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.2	92.0	87.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.3	11.3	8.7

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	79.6	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	57.7	0.9
– Net Position:	-5,944	5,983	-39
– Gross Longs:	2,932	21,676	200
– Gross Shorts:	8,876	15,693	239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.6	27.4	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	7.2	-21.4

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.