Speculator Bets led by Russell-2000 & DowJones :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 16thand shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Russell & DowJones

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other remaining markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (20,289 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (7,446 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (837 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (465 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-10,433 contracts), the VIX (-827 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-501 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

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Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (85 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (55 percent) and Russell-Mini (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nikkei 225 (35 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently. The next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (42 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (47.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (48.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (55.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (56.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (85.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (73.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (48.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (47.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (51.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (37.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (39.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (41.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (40.9 percent)

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DowJones-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (11 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (6 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei 225 (-32 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the VIX (-23 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-22.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (-20.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-0.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-7.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (11.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-8.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (5.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (13.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-9.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-24.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (-31.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-26.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-13.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-0.2 percent)

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Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -62,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	50.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.2	36.7	6.0
– Net Position:	-62,305	63,725	-1,420
– Gross Longs:	87,625	240,037	27,308
– Gross Shorts:	149,930	176,312	28,728
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.7	49.6	86.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.8	23.9	-3.5

 

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S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -65,444 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	69.4	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	71.1	8.0
– Net Position:	-65,444	-37,170	102,614
– Gross Longs:	333,866	1,449,475	269,625
– Gross Shorts:	399,310	1,486,645	167,011
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	34.8	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	1.4	-3.8

 

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Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	50.4	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	68.1	12.5
– Net Position:	15,241	-17,661	2,420
– Gross Longs:	30,568	50,244	14,925
– Gross Shorts:	15,327	67,905	12,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.1	12.6	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-10.8	2.7

 

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Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,217 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	55.0	16.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	62.2	11.6
– Net Position:	5,682	-18,500	12,818
– Gross Longs:	64,830	141,026	42,513
– Gross Shorts:	59,148	159,526	29,695
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	32.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-6.0	4.3

 

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Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -47,337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 20,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	72.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	65.5	4.8
– Net Position:	-47,337	35,373	11,964
– Gross Longs:	89,656	354,858	35,432
– Gross Shorts:	136,993	319,485	23,468
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.5	43.2	69.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	6.3	10.4

 

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Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	63.8	30.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	45.3	13.6
– Net Position:	-5,293	2,794	2,499
– Gross Longs:	901	9,607	4,539
– Gross Shorts:	6,194	6,813	2,040
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	46.0	91.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.8	20.4	15.5

 

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MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -23,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 837 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	88.7	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	84.8	1.5
– Net Position:	-23,771	16,545	7,226
– Gross Longs:	32,588	375,327	13,605
– Gross Shorts:	56,359	358,782	6,379
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	53.7	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	13.1	3.2

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.