Speculator Bets led by Steel & Palladium :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel (1,160 contracts) with Palladium (227 contracts) also recording a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-14,345 contracts), Gold (-6,887 contracts), Silver (-6,127 contracts) and with Copper (-4,184 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

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Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (97 percent) and Steel (82 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (17 percent) and Platinum (22 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (97.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (100.0 percent)
Silver (79.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (88.0 percent)
Copper (45.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (49.2 percent)
Platinum (21.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.0 percent)
Palladium (16.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.1 percent)
Steel (82.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (77.7 percent)

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Steel & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (10 percent) and Gold (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-29 percent) and Copper (-27 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (6.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.9 percent)
Silver (-7.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-10.8 percent)
Copper (-27.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-38.9 percent)
Platinum (-28.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-16.6 percent)
Palladium (4.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-10.3 percent)
Steel (10.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.4 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 287,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 294,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.4	15.7	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	76.8	5.3
– Net Position:	287,558	-311,887	24,329
– Gross Longs:	339,157	80,416	51,198
– Gross Shorts:	51,599	392,303	26,869
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.2	4.0	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-4.2	-12.7

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.0	23.3	22.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	72.6	8.2
– Net Position:	46,059	-64,529	18,470
– Gross Longs:	64,099	30,538	29,148
– Gross Shorts:	18,040	95,067	10,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.7	22.6	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	10.3	-19.3

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,145 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.3	35.0	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	44.4	6.4
– Net Position:	12,961	-18,964	6,003
– Gross Longs:	77,290	70,738	18,996
– Gross Shorts:	64,329	89,702	12,993
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	54.1	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.2	29.0	-26.7

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,733 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.1	27.1	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.5	38.7	4.6
– Net Position:	1,388	-10,141	8,753
– Gross Longs:	41,924	23,587	12,771
– Gross Shorts:	40,536	33,728	4,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	64.6	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.9	26.8	12.3

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	61.5	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.5	8.9	7.0
– Net Position:	-11,633	11,622	11
– Gross Longs:	6,145	13,590	1,551
– Gross Shorts:	17,778	1,968	1,540
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	6.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.7	86.9	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	1.2	-38.1

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,892 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	69.8	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	50.9	1.2
– Net Position:	-3,732	3,836	-104
– Gross Longs:	4,066	14,153	135
– Gross Shorts:	7,798	10,317	239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.1	19.2	21.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-10.9	20.4

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.