By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (54,198 contracts) with Wheat (11,414 contracts), Cotton (8,202 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,775 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,573 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-27,563 contracts), Soybean Meal (-13,276 contracts), Cocoa (-8,571 contracts), Coffee (-8,181 contracts), Soybeans (-4,908 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,015 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Corn & Live Cattle
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Corn (90 percent) and Live Cattle (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (88 percent), Lean Hogs (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Cotton (5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Sugar (21 percent), Soybean Meal (22 percent) and Wheat (33 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (90.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (93.6 percent)
Sugar (21.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.0 percent)
Coffee (87.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (95.5 percent)
Soybeans (44.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (46.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (21.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (27.1 percent)
Live Cattle (90.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (93.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (81.5 percent)
Cotton (5.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (37.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (46.1 percent)
Wheat (32.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.7 percent)
Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (27 percent) and Wheat (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (12 percent), Live Cattle (9 percent) and Sugar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Cocoa (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-6 percent), Cotton (-5 percent) and Lean Hogs (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (11.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (19.0 percent)
Sugar (6.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-22.6 percent)
Coffee (0.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (7.5 percent)
Soybeans (-6.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (10.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (20.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.9 percent)
Live Cattle (9.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (13.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-13.8 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.4 percent)
Cocoa (-9.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.2 percent)
Wheat (16.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.8 percent)
Individual Soft Commodities Markets:
CORN Futures:
The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 441,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -27,563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 468,724 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 31.2 | 38.8 | 6.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 8.2 | 57.5 | 10.6 |
| – Net Position: | 441,161 | -358,683 | -82,478 |
| – Gross Longs: | 597,706 | 744,225 | 119,966 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 156,545 | 1,102,908 | 202,444 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.8 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 90.0 | 14.9 | 10.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 11.9 | -11.5 | -8.0 |
SUGAR Futures:
The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 54,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,707 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.4 | 51.2 | 7.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.9 | 56.4 | 6.1 |
| – Net Position: | 33,491 | -50,612 | 17,121 |
| – Gross Longs: | 206,226 | 494,532 | 76,510 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 172,735 | 545,144 | 59,389 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 21.3 | 76.9 | 41.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.2 | -11.0 | 27.8 |
COFFEE Futures:
The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,878 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 40.7 | 37.0 | 5.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 7.6 | 71.9 | 3.5 |
| – Net Position: | 63,697 | -67,169 | 3,472 |
| – Gross Longs: | 78,310 | 71,130 | 10,259 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 14,613 | 138,299 | 6,787 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 5.4 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 87.6 | 12.9 | 75.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.9 | -1.8 | 15.5 |
SOYBEANS Futures:
The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,550 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,908 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,642 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.4 | 57.3 | 4.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.7 | 51.7 | 9.1 |
| – Net Position: | -10,550 | 46,048 | -35,498 |
| – Gross Longs: | 160,652 | 474,795 | 40,258 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 171,202 | 428,747 | 75,756 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 44.9 | 59.8 | 19.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.0 | 6.9 | -6.7 |
SOYBEAN OIL Futures:
The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 55,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,595 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.1 | 55.4 | 6.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.4 | 67.0 | 4.5 |
| – Net Position: | 55,168 | -65,153 | 9,985 |
| – Gross Longs: | 124,887 | 312,914 | 35,495 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 69,719 | 378,067 | 25,510 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 71.7 | 30.7 | 52.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 27.0 | -28.6 | 32.8 |
SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:
The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.4 | 50.3 | 8.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.8 | 51.0 | 5.7 |
| – Net Position: | -13,967 | -4,408 | 18,375 |
| – Gross Longs: | 102,087 | 294,109 | 51,912 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 116,054 | 298,517 | 33,537 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 21.7 | 76.0 | 38.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.4 | -2.5 | -9.6 |
LIVE CATTLE Futures:
The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 113,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,439 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 48.9 | 29.5 | 7.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.1 | 53.5 | 14.1 |
| – Net Position: | 113,424 | -88,275 | -25,149 |
| – Gross Longs: | 179,879 | 108,595 | 26,597 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 66,455 | 196,870 | 51,746 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.7 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 90.5 | 14.8 | 9.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 9.1 | -9.5 | -5.5 |
LEAN HOGS Futures:
The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,445 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 43.3 | 32.0 | 7.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.2 | 53.4 | 9.4 |
| – Net Position: | 73,220 | -67,641 | -5,579 |
| – Gross Longs: | 137,087 | 101,137 | 24,044 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 63,867 | 168,778 | 29,623 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 84.4 | 13.0 | 43.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.4 | 0.8 | 29.2 |
COTTON Futures:
The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -42,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,767 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.9 | 50.0 | 5.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 38.7 | 36.3 | 4.6 |
| – Net Position: | -42,565 | 39,238 | 3,327 |
| – Gross Longs: | 68,832 | 143,745 | 16,498 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 111,397 | 104,507 | 13,171 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 5.4 | 93.8 | 36.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.2 | 2.9 | 20.2 |
COCOA Futures:
The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 26,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,390 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 33.8 | 40.0 | 9.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.7 | 67.3 | 4.1 |
| – Net Position: | 26,819 | -33,051 | 6,232 |
| – Gross Longs: | 40,947 | 48,369 | 11,236 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 14,128 | 81,420 | 5,004 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.9 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 37.3 | 60.1 | 65.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.9 | 9.6 | 3.0 |
WHEAT Futures:
The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -55,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,355 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.5 | 34.1 | 8.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 41.9 | 21.9 | 7.7 |
| – Net Position: | -55,941 | 54,281 | 1,660 |
| – Gross Longs: | 132,148 | 152,709 | 35,998 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 188,089 | 98,428 | 34,338 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 32.7 | 64.4 | 65.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 16.3 | -16.3 | -1.0 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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