By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by the 10-Year & 2-Year Bonds
The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (133,809 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (57,247 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (28,956 contracts) also having positive weeks.
The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-162,256 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-65,115 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-62,155 contracts), the Fed Funds (-41,041 contracts) and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-15,038 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.
Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & US Treasury Bonds
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (89 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (85 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (52 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (33 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (39 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (89.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (97.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (32.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (29.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (19.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (50.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (38.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (12.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (85.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (74.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (52.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (58.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (39.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (42.7 percent)
Fed Funds & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (36 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bonds (21 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
The SOFR 3-Months (-39 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-27 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-7 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (36.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (67.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-1.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-6.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (-2.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-0.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (20.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (9.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-27.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-15.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (20.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-1.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-7.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-39.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-34.5 percent)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -404,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -65,115 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -339,562 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| SOFR 3-Months Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 13.3 | 59.4 | 0.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.2 | 55.5 | 0.5 |
| – Net Position: | -404,677 | 408,357 | -3,680 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,389,581 | 6,209,318 | 49,269 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,794,258 | 5,800,961 | 52,949 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 39.4 | 60.7 | 85.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -39.1 | 38.9 | 3.2 |
30-Day Federal Funds Futures:
The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 95,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -41,041 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 136,965 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.9 | 56.7 | 1.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.8 | 62.1 | 2.6 |
| – Net Position: | 95,924 | -85,206 | -10,718 |
| – Gross Longs: | 329,136 | 894,232 | 29,503 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 233,212 | 979,438 | 40,221 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 89.1 | 11.6 | 70.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 36.1 | -33.8 | -19.8 |
2-Year Treasury Note Futures:
The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -964,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 57,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,022,233 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 13.4 | 78.6 | 6.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 37.3 | 58.0 | 3.3 |
| – Net Position: | -964,986 | 832,486 | 132,500 |
| – Gross Longs: | 541,411 | 3,178,396 | 264,452 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,506,397 | 2,345,910 | 131,952 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 32.7 | 63.6 | 94.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.9 | 0.8 | 7.3 |
5-Year Treasury Note Futures:
The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,326,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -162,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,163,849 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.5 | 84.7 | 6.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.8 | 64.8 | 5.3 |
| – Net Position: | -1,326,105 | 1,242,371 | 83,734 |
| – Gross Longs: | 469,333 | 5,284,344 | 412,489 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,795,438 | 4,041,973 | 328,755 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 9.1 | 92.9 | 80.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.7 | 4.5 | -3.6 |
10-Year Treasury Note Futures:
The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -347,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 133,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -481,620 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 11.8 | 76.1 | 9.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.6 | 68.1 | 9.3 |
| – Net Position: | -347,811 | 351,641 | -3,830 |
| – Gross Longs: | 522,351 | 3,378,701 | 409,062 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 870,162 | 3,027,060 | 412,892 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 50.6 | 40.0 | 72.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 20.7 | -23.8 | -7.6 |
Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:
The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -276,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -62,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -214,299 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 11.7 | 76.4 | 9.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 24.4 | 60.3 | 13.2 |
| – Net Position: | -276,454 | 348,749 | -72,295 |
| – Gross Longs: | 253,058 | 1,655,031 | 212,855 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 529,512 | 1,306,282 | 285,150 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.3 | 99.8 | 71.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -27.1 | 33.7 | -2.7 |
US Treasury Bonds Futures:
The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 28,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,669 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| US Treasury Bonds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.7 | 68.5 | 12.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.4 | 71.3 | 10.0 |
| – Net Position: | 4,287 | -46,304 | 42,017 |
| – Gross Longs: | 271,919 | 1,116,694 | 204,299 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 267,632 | 1,162,998 | 162,282 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 85.0 | 0.0 | 77.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 20.9 | -23.9 | 1.0 |
Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:
The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -331,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -316,115 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.9 | 80.4 | 10.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.9 | 61.1 | 9.7 |
| – Net Position: | -331,153 | 319,430 | 11,723 |
| – Gross Longs: | 147,454 | 1,332,490 | 171,656 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 478,607 | 1,013,060 | 159,933 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 52.2 | 53.0 | 47.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.4 | 2.4 | 12.4 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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