Speculator bets led higher by Copper & Gold :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were strongly higher this week as all six metals markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (13,448 contracts) with Gold (5,324 contracts), Silver (3,900 contracts), Platinum (2,423 contracts), Palladium (267 contracts) and Steel (137 contracts) rounding out the positive weeks.

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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).

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Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (100 percent) and Silver (100 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Platinum (83 percent) and Steel (82 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Palladium (53 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (100.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (98.0 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (94.8 percent)
Copper (64.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (51.6 percent)
Platinum (83.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (76.7 percent)
Palladium (52.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (50.7 percent)
Steel (81.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (81.3 percent)

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Palladium & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (40 percent) and Platinum (33 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (23 percent), Gold (18 percent) and Copper (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data with Steel (8 percent) also showing a positive trend.

Move Statistics:
Gold (18.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (27.1 percent)
Silver (22.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (12.3 percent)
Copper (16.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.1 percent)
Platinum (33.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (31.2 percent)
Palladium (40.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (45.8 percent)
Steel (8.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.5 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 315,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 310,066 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.6	13.6	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	73.7	5.2
– Net Position:	315,390	-339,706	24,316
– Gross Longs:	387,572	76,713	53,444
– Gross Shorts:	72,182	416,419	29,128
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.3	-17.0	-3.3

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 62,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,900 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,298 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.0	19.6	20.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	74.1	6.9
– Net Position:	62,198	-81,832	19,634
– Gross Longs:	81,029	29,339	30,059
– Gross Shorts:	18,831	111,171	10,425
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	3.3	65.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.6	-16.8	-9.0

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,448 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,682 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.6	30.8	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	48.3	5.8
– Net Position:	33,130	-39,627	6,497
– Gross Longs:	96,262	69,639	19,602
– Gross Shorts:	63,132	109,266	13,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.1	36.3	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.1	-13.1	-12.8

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,978 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.3	20.9	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	60.2	5.2
– Net Position:	24,401	-29,540	5,139
– Gross Longs:	46,103	15,715	9,020
– Gross Shorts:	21,702	45,255	3,881
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.2	12.8	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.3	-29.1	-24.0

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,733 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	55.7	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.4	20.8	9.2
– Net Position:	-6,733	6,631	102
– Gross Longs:	5,867	10,572	1,856
– Gross Shorts:	12,600	3,941	1,754
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.6	51.3	38.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.3	-36.0	-21.5

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	73.0	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	59.5	1.0
– Net Position:	-3,786	3,686	100
– Gross Longs:	4,111	19,891	385
– Gross Shorts:	7,897	16,205	285
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.9	18.7	43.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-8.8	18.2

 

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