Speculator bets led higher by Copper & Platinum :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (22,398 contracts) with Platinum (10,418 contracts), Palladium (1,436 contracts) and Silver (65 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week was Gold (-4,831 contracts) with Steel (-557 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

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Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Silver, Steel & Copper

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (100 percent), Steel (91 percent) and Copper (88 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (68 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (29 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (67.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (69.8 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (99.9 percent)
Copper (87.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (62.6 percent)
Platinum (68.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (41.0 percent)
Palladium (28.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (19.9 percent)
Steel (91.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (93.6 percent)

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Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (59 percent) and Copper (50 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (41 percent), Gold (27 percent) and Palladium (21 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data while Steel (6 percent) also has a positive trend.

Move Statistics:
Gold (27.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (30.1 percent)
Silver (58.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (46.6 percent)
Copper (49.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (40.5 percent)
Platinum (41.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (0.3 percent)
Palladium (21.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.6 percent)
Steel (6.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.6 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 202,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,831 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 207,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.4	25.4	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	69.8	5.8
– Net Position:	202,419	-224,582	22,163
– Gross Longs:	279,799	128,094	51,559
– Gross Shorts:	77,380	352,676	29,396
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.6	33.6	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.3	-27.1	17.5

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 53,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 65 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,147 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.6	25.4	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	66.3	8.2
– Net Position:	53,212	-71,275	18,063
– Gross Longs:	84,826	44,362	32,322
– Gross Shorts:	31,614	115,637	14,259
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	3.9	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	58.7	-48.9	0.6

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 42,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 22,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,296 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	25.0	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	41.4	4.9
– Net Position:	42,694	-49,506	6,812
– Gross Longs:	144,572	75,177	21,599
– Gross Shorts:	101,878	124,683	14,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.6	14.5	61.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.5	-50.8	34.6

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 19,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,589 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.0	18.3	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.7	48.2	4.4
– Net Position:	19,007	-24,316	5,309
– Gross Longs:	51,330	14,912	8,890
– Gross Shorts:	32,323	39,228	3,581
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.8	32.9	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.1	-36.9	-3.9

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -8,766 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	55.9	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.7	12.2	8.5
– Net Position:	-8,766	8,989	-223
– Gross Longs:	5,756	11,486	1,529
– Gross Shorts:	14,522	2,497	1,752
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	4.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	76.0	28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.4	-19.4	-15.9

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,271 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	79.4	1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	74.7	1.0
– Net Position:	-1,271	1,138	133
– Gross Longs:	3,389	19,032	370
– Gross Shorts:	4,660	17,894	237
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.5	9.0	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-6.5	5.1

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.