Speculator Bets led higher by Gold & Platinum :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as all six of the metals markets we cover had slightly higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (9,398 contracts) with Platinum (1,826 contracts), Copper (541 contracts), Silver (477 contracts), Steel (107 contracts) and Palladium (9 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

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Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (89 percent) and Gold (79 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (78.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (75.3 percent)
Silver (70.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (70.2 percent)
Copper (43.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (42.5 percent)
Platinum (64.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.1 percent)
Palladium (60.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (60.6 percent)
Steel (88.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (88.3 percent)

 

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Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that there are no positive movers currently in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores this week with Copper (-20 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-13.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-13.7 percent)
Silver (-29.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.2 percent)
Copper (-20.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-23.8 percent)
Platinum (-34.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-23.0 percent)
Palladium (-4.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.7 percent)
Steel (-3.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.8 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 259,736 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 250,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.6	13.7	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	75.6	4.7
– Net Position:	259,736	-286,275	26,539
– Gross Longs:	307,611	63,251	48,337
– Gross Shorts:	47,875	349,526	21,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	19.2	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	13.8	-7.1

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,783 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.9	24.4	22.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	70.6	8.0
– Net Position:	43,260	-62,019	18,759
– Gross Longs:	64,285	32,688	29,478
– Gross Shorts:	21,025	94,707	10,719
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	25.8	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.2	25.8	-1.2

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 10,466 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 541 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,925 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.6	35.6	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	42.5	5.7
– Net Position:	10,466	-14,783	4,317
– Gross Longs:	86,478	75,871	16,412
– Gross Shorts:	76,012	90,654	12,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.0	57.7	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.5	25.1	-42.9

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.5	18.3	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.9	48.6	3.8
– Net Position:	20,486	-28,718	8,232
– Gross Longs:	55,415	17,292	11,849
– Gross Shorts:	34,929	46,010	3,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.4	28.5	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.0	26.9	37.1

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,652 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	49.4	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.6	18.4	7.7
– Net Position:	-5,643	4,841	802
– Gross Longs:	5,402	7,728	2,015
– Gross Shorts:	11,045	2,887	1,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	38.5	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	3.2	5.5

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,103 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	66.5	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	59.8	0.6
– Net Position:	-1,996	1,926	70
– Gross Longs:	7,486	19,039	248
– Gross Shorts:	9,482	17,113	178
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.7	12.0	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	3.5	0.4

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.