Speculator Bets led higher by Silver, Platinum & Gold :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Silver, Platinum & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively higher this week as all six out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver (5,993 contracts) with Platinum (5,602 contracts), Gold (3,099 contracts), Copper (2,376 contracts), Palladium (960 contracts) and with Steel (22 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

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Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (95 percent) and Steel (89 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (80 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (48 percent) and Palladium (57 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (95.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (93.9 percent)
Silver (79.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (72.2 percent)
Copper (47.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (45.4 percent)
Platinum (60.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (47.6 percent)
Palladium (57.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (50.1 percent)
Steel (88.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (88.4 percent)

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Gold & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (21 percent) and Palladium (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Copper (13 percent), Silver (13 percent) and Steel (12 percent) are the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

There are no lower or negative trend scores this week underscoring the positive sentiment for metals currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (20.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.2 percent)
Silver (12.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (5.2 percent)
Copper (12.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.6 percent)
Platinum (7.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-0.9 percent)
Palladium (14.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (1.7 percent)
Steel (11.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.5 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 302,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 299,409 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.8	13.7	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	74.3	4.4
– Net Position:	302,508	-328,175	25,667
– Gross Longs:	356,500	74,378	49,522
– Gross Shorts:	53,992	402,553	23,855
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.1	4.2	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.8	-19.8	-0.1

 

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Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 50,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,993 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,368 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.7	17.3	18.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	57.7	7.7
– Net Position:	50,361	-69,007	18,646
– Gross Longs:	83,120	29,564	31,821
– Gross Shorts:	32,759	98,571	13,175
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	18.1	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-15.5	18.4

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 15,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,045 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.1	35.5	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	43.5	5.3
– Net Position:	15,421	-18,710	3,289
– Gross Longs:	92,002	83,745	15,692
– Gross Shorts:	76,581	102,455	12,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.6	54.3	37.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.7	-9.2	-17.6

 

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Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 18,975 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,373 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.4	19.5	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	51.9	5.6
– Net Position:	18,975	-23,739	4,764
– Gross Longs:	45,676	14,276	8,882
– Gross Shorts:	26,701	38,015	4,118
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.8	39.7	37.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-4.7	-19.1

 

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Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 960 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	44.7	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.8	12.6	7.8
– Net Position:	-6,124	5,506	618
– Gross Longs:	5,853	7,671	1,955
– Gross Shorts:	11,977	2,165	1,337
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	3.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	43.3	63.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-11.9	-14.5

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 22 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	66.1	1.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	60.4	0.6
– Net Position:	-1,763	1,582	181
– Gross Longs:	6,673	18,417	355
– Gross Shorts:	8,436	16,835	174
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	11.8	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-12.6	20.7

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.