By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by VIX & Russell 2000
The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (9,985 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (6,313 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (4,662 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (2,025 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (618 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-6,817 contracts) and the S&P500-Mini (-2,731 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Stock Market Data:
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (98 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (96 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (87 percent) and Russell-Mini (82 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, there are no markets at less than 50 percent of the past 3-year range.
Strength Statistics:
VIX (98.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (89.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (63.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (64.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (69.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (61.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (87.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (97.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (81.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (77.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (96.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (74.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (74.0 percent)
Nikkei 225 & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (35 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (12 percent), the DowJones-Mini (7 percent) and the Russell-Mini (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
The S&P500-Mini (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-1.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (10.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-26.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-28.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (7.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-1.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (12.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (23.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (6.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-2.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-26.0 percent)
Individual Stock Market Charts:
VIX Volatility Futures:
The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,745 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| VIX Volatility Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.8 | 43.3 | 10.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 25.3 | 46.1 | 9.3 |
| – Net Position: | 4,240 | -7,837 | 3,597 |
| – Gross Longs: | 74,898 | 120,747 | 29,624 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 70,658 | 128,584 | 26,027 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 98.3 | 1.3 | 86.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.7 | -2.9 | 28.7 |
S&P500 Mini Futures:
The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -78,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,935 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 11.3 | 74.6 | 11.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.9 | 72.9 | 9.4 |
| – Net Position: | -78,666 | 37,753 | 40,913 |
| – Gross Longs: | 240,096 | 1,592,776 | 240,722 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 318,762 | 1,555,023 | 199,809 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 63.9 | 40.5 | 53.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -26.4 | 34.3 | -32.7 |
Dow Jones Mini Futures:
The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 887 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.9 | 64.0 | 10.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.8 | 67.4 | 14.4 |
| – Net Position: | 5,549 | -2,637 | -2,912 |
| – Gross Longs: | 13,202 | 50,136 | 8,381 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 7,653 | 52,773 | 11,293 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.7 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 69.3 | 34.4 | 36.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 7.0 | -0.8 | -22.2 |
Nasdaq Mini Futures:
The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,680 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 31.2 | 53.8 | 13.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.7 | 63.3 | 16.2 |
| – Net Position: | 30,863 | -23,292 | -7,571 |
| – Gross Longs: | 77,026 | 132,873 | 32,433 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 46,163 | 156,165 | 40,004 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.7 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 87.0 | 28.5 | 40.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 12.2 | 19.5 | -49.5 |
Russell 2000 Mini Futures:
The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -406 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,719 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.4 | 72.6 | 5.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.5 | 71.9 | 5.8 |
| – Net Position: | -406 | 3,154 | -2,748 |
| – Gross Longs: | 84,850 | 333,928 | 23,884 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 85,256 | 330,774 | 26,632 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 81.7 | 25.9 | 16.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.7 | -1.5 | -20.7 |
Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:
The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.3 | 60.5 | 19.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 2.5 | 75.4 | 22.1 |
| – Net Position: | 1,904 | -1,590 | -314 |
| – Gross Longs: | 2,169 | 6,480 | 2,056 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 265 | 8,070 | 2,370 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 8.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 96.4 | 15.4 | 37.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 35.0 | -26.7 | -5.5 |
MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:
The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -10,432 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,050 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 9.2 | 88.2 | 2.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.4 | 87.1 | 1.2 |
| – Net Position: | -10,432 | 4,960 | 5,472 |
| – Gross Longs: | 43,109 | 414,031 | 11,117 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 53,541 | 409,071 | 5,645 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 74.8 | 32.2 | 44.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.2 | 4.6 | -11.2 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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