Speculator Bets led higher by WTI Crude Oil :: InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (16,865 contracts) with Gasoline (2,538 contracts), Brent Oil (1,496 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (30 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-16,397 contracts) and with Heating Oil (-474 contracts) also seeing slightly lower bets on the week.

Natural Gas leads Energy Price Changes

The energy markets price changes were mixed this week. Natural Gas was the highest mover with a muted 0.37% gain over the past 5 days. Natural Gas has been down -7.12% over the past 30 days while dropping a sharp -31.52% over the past 90 days.

Next up, Heating Oil was higher by 0.25% this week. Heating Oil is up 2.65% over the past 30 days while seeing a gain of 10.57% over the past 90 days.

WTI Crude Oil edged higher this week by 0.22% and has been up 8.73% over the past 90 days.

Brent Crude Oil was modestly lower by -0.38% over the past week. Brent Crude Oil has been up by approximately 1.5% in the past 30 days and is higher by 9% in the past 90 days.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index was the next lowest with a -0.43% return on the week while Gasoline saw the highest decline on the week with a -0.81% dip. Gasoline has been higher by 3.5% over the past 30 days and is up by approximately 6% over the past 90 days.

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Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Natural Gas

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Heating Oil (68.5 percent) and Natural Gas (53.7 percent) led the energy markets this week.

On the downside, WTI Crude (6.3 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and is the only market currently in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (6.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (45.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (43.8 percent)
Natural Gas (53.7 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (66.3 percent)
Gasoline (44.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (40.9 percent)
Heating Oil (68.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (69.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (44.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (44.7 percent)

 

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Gasoline tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gasoline (13.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets. Heating Oil (0.9 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

WTI Crude (-16.1 percent), Natural Gas (-13.2 percent) and the Bloomberg Index (-9.8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-16.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-27.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-3.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-5.8 percent)
Natural Gas (-13.2 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-6.8 percent)
Gasoline (13.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-1.7 percent)
Heating Oil (0.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-6.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-9.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-10.4 percent)

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Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 98,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,844 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	41.8	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	47.7	2.5
– Net Position:	98,709	-114,749	16,040
– Gross Longs:	278,276	820,579	64,779
– Gross Shorts:	179,567	935,328	48,739
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.3	95.5	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.1	19.9	-26.2

 

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Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,699 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	43.2	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	32.0	3.3
– Net Position:	-24,699	23,024	1,675
– Gross Longs:	40,627	88,732	8,347
– Gross Shorts:	65,326	65,708	6,672
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.9	54.4	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	3.5	3.3

 

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Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -110,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	31.8	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	25.4	2.8
– Net Position:	-110,944	104,419	6,525
– Gross Longs:	283,441	520,328	52,273
– Gross Shorts:	394,385	415,909	45,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	54.8	19.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	22.3	-29.1

 

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Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	49.5	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	64.3	4.3
– Net Position:	43,659	-54,863	11,204
– Gross Longs:	86,260	183,418	27,051
– Gross Shorts:	42,601	238,281	15,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.5	49.3	86.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-17.7	31.1

 

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#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,457 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	44.5	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	56.1	7.4
– Net Position:	18,983	-45,749	26,766
– Gross Longs:	56,751	176,526	56,062
– Gross Shorts:	37,768	222,275	29,296
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	23.0	94.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-8.2	22.2

 

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Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	73.2	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	67.1	3.7
– Net Position:	-13,749	13,449	300
– Gross Longs:	33,754	162,851	8,485
– Gross Shorts:	47,503	149,402	8,185
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	54.8	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	9.5	1.4

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.